Local Specialized Freight Trucking NAICS 484220

May 20, 2026 - Diesel Prices Soar From the Iran War

• The Iran war has sharply increased fuel costs and volatility for the trucking industry, where diesel is one of the largest operating expenses. According to the Financial Times, US diesel prices recently climbed to about $5.66 per gallon, helping drive wholesale inflation to 6%, the highest level since 2022. Industry analysts say diesel has risen roughly 35-41% since the conflict escalated, fueled by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil normally flows. For trucking companies, every 50-cent rise in diesel can add roughly $0.08-$0.10 per mile in operating costs, squeezing already thin margins for small fleets and independent owner-operators. Larger carriers are offsetting some of the impact through fuel surcharges and route optimization, but higher freight costs are increasingly flowing through to retailers, food suppliers, and consumers across the broader economy.
• Trucking dominated US transborder freight in 2025, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, cementing its position as the backbone of North American commerce. Of the $1.6 trillion in total freight moved between the US, Canada, and Mexico across all modes, surface transportation accounted for more than 80% by value - and trucks led the way. Trucking carried 55.7% of all US-Canada freight value and an even more commanding 73.6% of US-Mexico freight value. By comparison, rail (trucking's closest surface competitor) captured just 12.6% of the Canadian corridor and 10.9% of the Mexican corridor. Overall transborder freight fell 1% in 2025, with US-Canada trade declining 6.4% to $712.8 billion, while US-Mexico trade bucked the trend, rising 3.9% to $872.8 billion, a potential bright spot for truckers given their outsized share of that corridor.

• In 2025’s sluggish freight market, health care logistics stood out as a growth bright spot for US carriers, drawing strategic expansion and investment. UPS bolstered its health care business by completing a $1.6 billion acquisition of Andlauer Healthcare Group, enhancing temperature-controlled and time-sensitive transport for pharmaceuticals and medical devices. DHL Supply Chain expanded US capabilities by buying Nashville-based CryoPDP and Tampa-based SDS Rx, strengthening specialty pharmaceutical, biopharma and final-mile services. These deals reflect carriers’ efforts to build high-margin health care networks and meet rising demand for cold chain and clinical logistics services. FedEx also reported plans to grow its health care revenue to about $9 billion in fiscal 2025 as it pursues new business. The segment’s resilience and specialized needs, including temperature control and rapid delivery, position it as a key vertical for US logistics firms amid broader freight market challenges.
• Refrigerated truckload capacity in the US is tightening, pushing spot rates sharply higher, according to DAT Freight & Analytics. Average reefer spot rates, including fuel, came in at $2.47 per mile in mid-October 2025, up 10 cents from September and 12 cents year-over-year. The rate surge is hitting earlier than usual, especially on lanes out of Florida and the US/Mexico border, where enforcement of immigration and licensing regulations has reduced the pool of available drivers. Carriers are increasingly avoiding long hauls or high-risk routes, further straining supply as holiday and produce shipping seasons ramp up. Industry executives describe the market as facing a “continuous Roadcheck,” with regulatory pressure sidelining trucks that would otherwise be operating. The resulting squeeze gives carriers more pricing power, and shippers are paying more to secure capacity amid seasonal demand and ongoing driver shortages.