Office Administrative Services NAICS 561110

Jul 15, 2026 - Low Hiring Rates Keep Long-Term Unemployment Near Five-Year High

• Despite a seemingly strong US labor market, nearly 2 million Americans have remained unemployed for six months or longer, highlighting a growing divide between improving headline job numbers and the experience of many job seekers. The Labor Department reported that 27.3% of unemployed workers had been out of work for at least 27 weeks in June, near the highest share since late 2021 and up four percentage points from a year earlier. Economists say employers remain in a "low-hire, low-fire" mode, with hiring rates largely unchanged for the past two years despite steady job growth and a 4.2% unemployment rate. White-collar fields, including professional services, finance, information technology, and government, have been hit especially hard, leaving many experienced workers struggling to find new roles. Extended unemployment can erode skills, drain savings, reduce lifetime earnings, and increase pressure on workers to accept lower-paying jobs or change careers altogether.
• AI will reshape 50%-55% of US jobs over the next three years, according to Boston Consulting Group (BCG), fundamentally changing what workers do even when their positions survive. Over a five-year horizon, 10%-15% of jobs could be eliminated entirely. BCG examined tasks and government labor data associated with 1,500 occupations and found the effects will vary significantly by industry. Software engineering demand may actually increase as AI drives down costs and clears massive project backlogs, while call center jobs face widespread elimination since lower costs won't generate proportionally more customer interactions. Jobs requiring physical presence or interpersonal skills (plumbers, therapists, and similar roles) will see little disruption. Rather than defaulting to layoffs, experts urge businesses to invest in re-skilling workers and redeploying them to areas less exposed to automation. New job categories will likely emerge from the AI era, though what they might look like remains unclear.

• US job growth is increasingly carried almost entirely by healthcare, highlighting a labor market that is expanding unevenly. Nearly all of the 130,000 jobs added in January 2026 came from healthcare or healthcare-related roles, while sectors such as finance, information, retail, transportation and government shed workers, and gains in construction and manufacturing were comparatively modest. Economists say healthcare has quietly propped up US employment for more than a year as other industries retrenched, reflecting strong demand from an aging population and the sector’s relative insulation from automation and economic downturns. That stability has helped keep overall job growth positive even as large parts of the economy stall, though some warn that relying so heavily on a single industry carries risks if hiring slows or policy shifts take effect. For now, healthcare’s broad geographic footprint and steady demand are acting as a key stabilizer in a cooling US labor market.
• The US lost about 1.2 million jobs in 2025, up roughly 58% from 2024, according to career services company Challenger, Gray & Christmas. In December alone, employers announced about 35,500 cuts, capping the highest annual total since 2020. The largest reductions came from the federal government (~308,000 cuts), followed by technology (~154,000), retail (~92,000), and non-profits (~18,000). Workforce reductions in technology are being driven largely by AI adoption, accounting for almost 55,000 cuts last year, and contributing to a 36% increase in sector layoffs compared with 2024. Government spending cuts not only affect federal employees, but Department of Government Efficiency reductions to grants and research continue to ripple into the nonprofit sector. Rising tariffs also remain a significant factor in the ongoing wave of workforce reductions.