Local General Freight Trucking NAICS 484110

May 13, 2026 - Diesel Prices Rise Sharply From the Iran War

• The Iran war has sharply increased fuel costs and volatility for the trucking industry, where diesel is one of the largest operating expenses. According to the Financial Times, US diesel prices recently climbed to about $5.66 per gallon, helping drive wholesale inflation to 6%, the highest level since 2022. Industry analysts say diesel has risen roughly 35-41% since the conflict escalated, fueled by disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global oil normally flows. For trucking companies, every 50-cent rise in diesel can add roughly $0.08-$0.10 per mile in operating costs, squeezing already thin margins for small fleets and independent owner-operators. Larger carriers are offsetting some of the impact through fuel surcharges and route optimization, but higher freight costs are increasingly flowing through to retailers, food suppliers, and consumers across the broader economy.
• Cargo theft in trucking is rising sharply, but the nature of the threat has changed to more sophisticated forms of robbery. Reported losses reached about $725 million in 2025, up roughly 60% year over year, with average stolen loads exceeding $270,000, according to the Insurance Journal. Instead of traditional hijackings, most incidents now involve fraud - such as criminals impersonating legitimate carriers using stolen motor carrier numbers or running double brokering schemes that leave carriers unpaid. These attacks typically occur during the dispatch and load-booking process, where speed and limited verification create vulnerabilities. Drivers can also be affected, unknowingly hauling compromised loads. High-volume freight corridors, including major Texas routes, are frequent targets. For carriers (especially smaller operations) the financial and reputational impact can be significant, prompting many to adopt stricter verification practices and more disciplined dispatch procedures.

• Truck driver employment in the US hit an 8-year low in March 2026, with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting 1.4 million jobs - down 27,300 from 2025 and 124,500 below the October 2022 peak. The last three months have all fallen below 2017 levels, and the true picture is likely worse since self-employed owner-operators aren't counted in the BLS data and have been squeezed by years of low freight rates and spiking diesel prices. Tightening regulations and rising fuel costs from Trump’s Iran adventure are pressuring smaller carriers, making it difficult to add or maintain headcount even as spot rates improve. Despite the weak labor data, a strong new tractor order book suggests some carriers believe the current market tightness will persist - though analysts note it remains difficult to translate rising rates into actual hiring after years of thin margins.
• Trucking dominated US transborder freight in 2025, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, cementing its position as the backbone of North American commerce. Of the $1.6 trillion in total freight moved between the US, Canada, and Mexico across all modes, surface transportation accounted for more than 80% by value - and trucks led the way. Trucking carried 55.7% of all US-Canada freight value and an even more commanding 73.6% of US-Mexico freight value. By comparison, rail (trucking's closest surface competitor) captured just 12.6% of the Canadian corridor and 10.9% of the Mexican corridor. Overall transborder freight fell 1% in 2025, with US-Canada trade declining 6.4% to $712.8 billion, while US-Mexico trade bucked the trend, rising 3.9% to $872.8 billion, a potential bright spot for truckers given their outsized share of that corridor.