Local General Freight Trucking NAICS 484110

Apr 6, 2026 - Trucking Employment Hits 8-Year Low

• Truck driver employment in the US hit an 8-year low in March 2026, with the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reporting 1.4 million jobs - down 27,300 from 2025 and 124,500 below the October 2022 peak. The last three months have all fallen below 2017 levels, and the true picture is likely worse since self-employed owner-operators aren't counted in the BLS data and have been squeezed by years of low freight rates and spiking diesel prices. Tightening regulations and rising fuel costs from Trump’s Iran adventure are pressuring smaller carriers, making it difficult to add or maintain headcount even as spot rates improve. Despite the weak labor data, a strong new tractor order book suggests some carriers believe the current market tightness will persist - though analysts note it remains difficult to translate rising rates into actual hiring after years of thin margins.
• Trucking dominated US transborder freight in 2025, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics, cementing its position as the backbone of North American commerce. Of the $1.6 trillion in total freight moved between the US, Canada, and Mexico across all modes, surface transportation accounted for more than 80% by value - and trucks led the way. Trucking carried 55.7% of all US-Canada freight value and an even more commanding 73.6% of US-Mexico freight value. By comparison, rail (trucking's closest surface competitor) captured just 12.6% of the Canadian corridor and 10.9% of the Mexican corridor. Overall transborder freight fell 1% in 2025, with US-Canada trade declining 6.4% to $712.8 billion, while US-Mexico trade bucked the trend, rising 3.9% to $872.8 billion, a potential bright spot for truckers given their outsized share of that corridor.

• A wave of intense winter weather in late January jolted the US trucking industry, triggering a sharp spike in spot rates. According to DAT Freight & Analytics, rates jumped 40% week over week after snow and ice shut down or slowed major freight corridors across the country, highlighting how little excess capacity exists after a lengthy freight downturn. Dry-van spot rates climbed 11 cents in a week - the largest increase in more than three years - while refrigerated rates rose even more as shippers sought freeze protection. Analysts said the reaction was unusually severe for a winter weather event, and had more to do with less capacity. Large carriers such as Knight-Swift Transportation and Old Dominion Freight Line said regulatory crackdowns are directing more freight to compliant carriers, which could tighten capacity and support higher pricing, but the rally may prove short-lived if overall volumes don’t rise once the weather normalizes.
• FedEx announced June 1, 2026 as the date for its spin off of FedEx Freight into its own publicly traded company. As the largest less-than-truckload (LTL) carrier in the US, FedEx Freight moves shipments for retailers, manufacturers, and other shippers, handling goods that are too big or bulky for standard parcel delivery. The spinoff marks a major shift in the LTL market, creating a standalone operator with the scale to compete more directly on pricing, service, and efficiencies. Industry analysts expect the move could lead to higher valuations for other LTL carriers and pressure competitors to streamline operations or pursue M&As. With the new company focused solely on freight, shippers may benefit from more specialized service options, while other LTL carriers will face a market where one of the biggest players is no longer a cog in a bigger machine fighting for resources against FedEx Express and Ground.