US Retail Sector NAICS 44, 45

Nov 17, 2025 - Seasonal Employment Trends Shift Toward Leaner Holiday Buildups

• Holiday employment in retail remains a critical seasonal dynamic, with recent trends signaling moderation, according to recent data released by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). In 2024, five key retail industries added 492,000 workers during the holiday buildup, slightly stronger than 2023. Layoffs in early 2025 were smaller, with 29,000 seasonal employees retained compared to just 4,000 the prior year. This reflects a shift from pre-pandemic patterns, when buildups averaged over 600,000 hires and layoffs often exceeded additions. Since 2022, hiring has averaged closer to 475,000, while retention has dropped sharply from 127,000–168,000 in 2021–2022 to an average retention of about 28,000 in 2023–2025. For retailers, this suggests a cautious approach: meeting holiday demand with leaner seasonal hiring while limiting post-season workforce reabsorption.
• Softening consumer sentiment and confidence in November and October 2025 reflects a growing weakness in discretionary spending, posing challenges for US retailers. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 6.2% month-over-month in November's preliminary results to 50.3, a 29.9% year-over-year decline. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 52.3, and the Expectations Index to 49, down 36.3% annually. Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 4.7%, while long-run expectations declined to 3.6%, with increased uncertainty across both horizons. Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 94.6 from 95.6 in October, as improved current conditions (Present Situation Index up to 129.3) were offset by weaker short-term expectations (Expectations Index down to 71.5). Inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, and over half of consumers anticipated higher interest rates. Holiday spending is projected to fall, with promotions driving purchasing decisions.

• The retail sector's seasonal hiring is projected to fall below 500,000 positions in Q4 2025, marking the lowest level since 2009, according to a report by Challenger, Gray & Christmas in Retail Dive. The decline follows a 4% year-over-year decline in 2024, when 543,100 jobs were added. Economic pressures, including inflation, tariffs, and rising operational costs, are prompting retailers to rely more on automation and existing staff rather than expanding seasonal headcount. Target, for example, is prioritizing increased hours for current employees over new hires. While some retailers may ramp up hiring if sales outperform expectations, the muted pace of announcements suggests conservative planning. The impact of reduced seasonal hiring may result in constrained customer service capacity during peak periods and signal cautious sales expectations. Strategic staffing and operational agility will be key for retailers to navigate holiday demand amid economic uncertainty.
• US retailers have largely frontloaded holiday inventory to avoid rising tariffs, leading to a projected drop in monthly imports below 2 million TEU through year-end, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. Despite new 25% tariffs on furniture and cabinetry, most retailers remain well-stocked and are working to shield consumers from price hikes. The early peak season and tariff uncertainty have driven import volumes down, with October through December forecast to decline over 12–19% year over year. While the first half of 2025 saw modest growth, full-year imports are expected to fall 2.9% from 2024. Retailers brace for inflationary impacts as inventories deplete.