US Wholesale Sector NAICS 42

Feb 20, 2026 - Tariff Decision Boosts Refund Push

• Following a Supreme Court decision striking down President Trump’s global tariffs as unconstitutional for exceeding authority under the 1977 International Emergency Economic Powers Act, the National Association of Wholesaler-Distributors (NAW) is urging the Administration to quickly return tariff revenues to the businesses that paid them. The decision did not resolve whether refunds are required, leaving companies scrambling to assert claims as the administration considers alternative 10% tariffs under other authorities. NAW represents the $8.2 trillion wholesale distribution industry, employing over 6 million workers and accounting for nearly one-third of US GDP. Because wholesaler-distributors operate on thin margins while keeping supply chains moving, NAW argues that refunding tariff dollars would strengthen cash flow, unlock capital investment, and support reinvestment in inventory, infrastructure, technology, and workforce growth.
• The National Retail Federation reports that US container import volumes are projected to decline year over year in the first half of 2026, signaling tighter product availability and planning challenges for the US wholesale industry. According to Global Port Tracker (produced with Hackett Associates), major ports handled 1.99 million TEU in December (–6.6% YoY). January is forecast at 2.11 million TEU (–5.2% YoY), February 1.97 million (–3.1%), March 1.89 million (–12%), and April 2.05 million (–7.1%). May (2.13 million, +9.3%) and June (2.12 million, +8%) gains reflect weak 2025 comparisons after “Liberation Day” tariffs. First-half 2026 imports are expected to total 12.27 million TEU, down 2% from 12.53 million in 2025. For wholesalers, reduced volumes and tariff uncertainty increase inventory risk, cost pressures, and forecasting difficulty across supply chains.

• Gartner projects that humanoid robots are unlikely to have a material impact on US wholesale operations in the near term, with adoption expected to remain limited through 2028, according to a report in Modern Materials Handling. Fewer than 100 companies globally are projected to move beyond pilot testing, and fewer than 20 are expected to deploy humanoid robots in live production environments, typically in tightly controlled settings rather than high-volume distribution centers. For wholesalers, this suggests limited near-term labor relief, as current humanoid models struggle with mixed SKUs, trailer unloading, and exception handling. High costs, limited battery life, complex system integration, and lower throughput mean humanoid robots can cost several times more than alternatives while delivering less uptime. Gartner notes that polyfunctional robots, designed for specific warehouse tasks, offer higher efficiency and better throughput-per-dollar, making them a more practical automation path for wholesalers focused on productivity, ROI, and scalable warehouse performance.
• The US wholesale industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.59% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report noted that retail and wholesale trade sectors are driven by consumer spending along with business and government expenditures. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the retail and wholesale industries. Retail, wholesale, and other industries rely heavily on foreign markets and on the future of the trade market, as well as frequently depend heavily on foreign-born workers. Changes to US trade policy, immigration, and international events will affect these sectors over a longer horizon. The sector's investment in data centers, AI, and other technologies could boost labor productivity, with further productivity gains potentially stemming from improvement to public infrastructure.