Racetracks NAICS 711212

May 20, 2025 - Higher Growth Forecast

• The US racetracks industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.88% between 2025 and 2029, faster than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Consumer confidence is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the arts, entertainment, and recreation sector. Consumer expenditure for membership clubs, sports centers, parks, theaters, and museums drives much of the revenue for the sector. While this spending dropped severely during the pandemic lockdown, recovery has gradually occurred. Real spending for spectator sports has experienced a robust recovery, with real spending up 44.5% in Q3 2024. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• According to two major indicators, consumer confidence, an indicator of discretionary spending, continues to fall, which may affect attendance and spending at racetracks. The Consumer Confidence Index declined by 7.9 points in April 2024, compared to the previous month. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”

• The 25% tariffs imposed on Canada and Mexico by the Trump administration do not currently apply to live horses, but would have a detrimental impact on the industry if implemented, according to an advisory from the National Thoroughbred Racing Association (NTRA). Tariffs on items that are United States-Mexico-Canada- Agreement (USMCA) compliant, including live horses, were paused until April 2, 2025. Following the deadline, the White House announced certain goods, including live horses under the USMCA agreement, can remain duty free. The NTRA stated that a tariff on live horses would be a “significant blow” to the industry. If tariffs are implemented, there will be several conditions in which horses can enter the US for extended periods without paying tariffs; these include temporary entry (horses admitted under bond for exportation within a year), duty-free status (purebred breeding horses have a duty-free status when imported permanently), and temporary import for racing/shows, per the advisory. According to the Financial Post, many Canadian-based mares are bred to Kentucky-based horses before returning to deliver a registered Canadian-bred foal.
• The racing-related equine fatality rate hit a historic low in 2024, according to the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority’s (HISA) most recent metrics report. In 2024, 99.91% of starts did not result in a fatality, for the first time since data has been recorded. The metrics showed that for 47 racetracks across 19 states operating under HISA rules, the aggregate racing-related fatality rate was 0.90 per 1,000 starts. This was 27% lower than the 1.23 rate reported by HISA the previous year and a 55% decline from the 2.00 rate from when The Jockey Club’s Equine Injury Database began reporting fatalities in 2009. According to the Equine Injury Database from The Jockey Club, racetracks in the US that are not subject to HISA rules had a higher fatality rate of 1.76 per 1,000 starts in 2024.