This is the fourth and final installment in our popular Monday Night Football-inspired Gameday Economic Play-by-Play blog series, tapping into our Industry Intelligence to showcase the competing teams’ hometowns. This week, the 4-9 Chicago Bears come to Minneapolis to take on the 11-2 Minnesota Vikings!
Although I live in Raleigh, I’ve been a long-time Minnesota Vikings fan. It started back when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater was the team’s 2014 first round draft pick. Bridgewater’s time with the Vikings was cut short by a serious knee injury during off-season practice in 2016, but my affinity for the Vikings has endured. In fact, I finally got to go to my first game in Minneapolis in October!
Tonight, hoping to continue their hot six-game winning streak, my Vikings take on the Chicago Bears in Monday Night Football. The Bears come to Minneapolis with a seven-game losing streak, so I like Minnesota’s odds!
But whether you’re a football fan or not, there’s much to be learned by understanding the local landscape in which your clients and prospects operate and sell. The economic and Industry Intelligence found on Vertical IQ makes it easy to become the local economist that so many business owners are looking for. So, let’s take a closer look at each of these football cities — Chicago and Minneapolis — and dig into some of these local economic insights.
Chicago’s economic big picture
On the shores of Lake Michigan, and with its iconic architecture and sports teams, famous restaurant and shopping scene, and one of the largest art museums in the world, Chicago has something for just about everyone!
The Windy City had a total of 3,835,100 jobs in September 2023, per the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ most recent data. These figures reveal that jobs were up 0.64% in December 2023 versus a year ago — lagging behind the national average of 1.18% during that same timeframe. The unemployment rate for greater Chicago-Naperville in March 2024 was 4.7%, ticking up from 3.9% a year ago and slightly higher than the national rate of 3.8%.
Chicago-Naperville’s per capita income averaged $73,589 in 2022, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ latest data. That’s up just $305 from the prior year, but it is 112% of the 2022 national average income of $65,470. Incomes have been steadily increasing in the metropolitan area over the last decade.
The population of greater Chicago was 7,216,457 in 2022, making it the third largest city in the U.S. behind Los Angeles and New York City. However, the Windy City’s 2022 population decreased by -0.6% from the previous year — slower than the 0.4% U.S. average in 2022. Indeed, Chicago-Naperville’s population growth has been somewhat sporadic in the last decade, though it has declined to -1.7% over the past five years of available data (2018-2022).
As a large city, residential real estate prices in Chicago have typically exceeded the national average. However, perhaps in response to slowed population and wage growth, real estate in the area has fallen in line with national averages. The latest data available from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) shows that home prices in this market averaged $311,100 in 2022, comparable to the U.S. average.
But the market in Chicago may be turning a corner. Local Market Monitor (LMM) data shows that the area’s home prices were up 5% in 2023 — on par with the nation’s average. LMM also projects that the home price forecast for Chicago-Naperville will grow by 8% for this year, which is twice the U.S. average of 4% growth.
Top industries in Chicago
Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show that the sectors that employed the most people in the greater Chicago area over the last 12 months are:
- Business and Professional (18%)
- Health and Education (16%)
- Government (11%)
Interestingly though, over that same time period, the industry sectors with the most local growth were:
- Leisure and Hotels (up 8.13%)
- Health and Education (up 4.96%)
- Government (up 3.09%)
Looking at total SBA lending for Cook County shows that small businesses in Chicago-Naperville borrowed $8.5 billion in the last 20 years. Those SBA dollars reached a high of $726.3 million, lent in 2022, before dropping off sharply to $321.7 million thus far in 2024.
Lumos data shows that the industries that have received the most SBA dollars in Cook County in the past two decades have been:
- Full-service restaurants
- General freight trucking
- Limited-service restaurants
The economic big picture of Minneapolis
The Twin Cities of Minneapolis and St. Paul sit at the confluence of the Mississippi, Minnesota, and St. Croix Rivers. (Most statistical figures about this area also include nearby Bloomington.) Now home to the largest mall in the nation — The Mall of America — the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington region was the world’s 19th-century lumber and flour milling capital, making it the logical birthplace of grocery brand staples like General Mills and Pillsbury.
There were approximately 1,985,600 jobs in the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington Metropolitan area as of September 2023, according to Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The region’s job market grew 1.24% in December 2023 versus the previous year — close to the national rate of 1.18% during the same time period and almost twice Chicago’s rate (0.64%). The unemployment rate in the Twin Cities in March 2024 was up slightly to 3.3%, versus 3.1% in 2023. However, that’s still below the 3.9% national rate as well as Chicago’s 4.7% unemployment.
Per capita incomes in Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington for 2022 averaged $75,164, the latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis reveals. This is an increase of $2,510 from the prior year, as well as 115% of the U.S. per capita average of $65,470. What’s more, the average working Twin City resident is making a higher annual wage than Chicagoans’ $73,589 average income.
Much like greater Chicago, the population of the Twin Cities area has remained fairly steady over the past decade, per Census Bureau figures. The population was 3,678,328 in 2022, which was an increase of 0.5% from the previous year. However, over the past five years (2018-2022), the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington region’s population has grown 4.3% — much faster than the Chicago or U.S. average.
Of course, this population growth naturally leads to higher residential real estate prices in greater Minneapolis. The average Twin Cities area home cost $359,800 in 2022, per the most recent figures from the FHFA, higher than the Chicago average home price of $311,100 or the U.S. average of $320,900. And the Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington region’s real estate is expected to continue its upward trajectory with a projected increase of another 3% for 2024, according to Local Market Monitor data.
Minneapolis’ top industries
As for the top employers in the vicinity of Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington for 2023, the most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics figures show that — much like greater Chicago — they are jobs in:
- Health and Education (18%)
- Business and Professional (15%)
- Government (12%)
The sectors showing the most 12-month growth in the Twin Cities region have been:
- Leisure and Hotels (up 7.1%)
- Health and Education (up 3.42%)
- Government (up 2.29%)
Turning to Hennepin County’s SBA lending, in the last 20 years, the county has seen $4.1 billion in total SBA loans. This lending peaked in 2021, at the height of the pandemic, when Hennepin County received over $358.6 million SBA dollars.
The industries receiving the majority of those SBA dollars for Hennepin County do show some crossover with Chicago’s Cook County, according to Lumos’ SBA lending data:
- Full-service restaurants
- Limited-service restaurants
- Commercial printing
Local expertise means more winning
If you ask me, the smart money is on my Vikings to continue their winning streak during tonight’s MNF game! And if you’re ready to start your own winning streak, Vertical IQ can help.
As we’ve shown you with our Gameday Economic Play-by-Play blog series, a world of local economic and industry insights are available to you with just a click of your mouse. Sales professionals who leverage the Local Economies and Localized Industry Data on Vertical IQ can successfully win, grow, and retain more business.
These targeted sections offer valuable insights into specific geographic regions and provide detailed information on how industries function within your selected metropolitan statistical area (MSA) or county. It is a simple, time-saving way to add value to relationships while differentiating yourself from the competition.
And as with all of the content on Vertical IQ, this localized content is actionable, convenient, and focused, making your goal to become a local economist to your clients and prospects practically a gimmie!
It’s time to bring your A-game by using targeted economic and Industry Intelligence from Vertical IQ! Contact us today to learn more.