Architectural Services NAICS 541310

May 21, 2025 - Multifamily Developer Confidence Drops

• Multifamily developer confidence declined in the first quarter of 2025, according to the National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) latest Multifamily Market Survey. The Multifamily Production Index (MPI) fell three points in Q1 2025 to 44 compared to the first quarter of 2024. The Multifamily Occupancy Index (MOI) decreased by one point to 82 over the same period. An MPI or MOI reading of 50 or more indicates that multifamily production or occupancy, respectively, is growing. Multifamily developers’ headwinds include a tight lending environment, higher borrowing costs, and regulatory difficulties. More than half of multifamily builders surveyed said their suppliers had raised prices in response to announced, enacted, or anticipated tariffs. While multifamily construction activity is expected to remain weak for the remainder of the year, the NAHB projects that a modest recovery will take hold in 2026.
• The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased by 0.9% in April 2025 to 205.1 (2000=100), compared to the revised March reading of 203.1. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. On a monthly basis, the commercial planning component rose by 3.3%, but institutional declined by 4.2%. Dodge’s associate director of forecasting, Sarah Martin, said, “Despite an uptick in April, the bulk of the DMI’s growth was driven by a surge in data center planning, while momentum in other nonresidential sectors lagged behind. Owners and developers are navigating heightened economic and policy uncertainty, which likely bogged down much of this month’s planning activity.”

• Utilities and grid operators are grappling with a flood of speculative interconnection requests for data centers that may never be built, according to Utility Dive. Grid optimization software firm Camus Energy estimates there are between five and 10 times as many interconnection requests as the number of data centers being built. US data center load growth forecasts often diverge widely. A 2024 projection by the RAND Corporation estimated the AI sector would boost power demand by 347 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. In April 2025, Schneider Electric cited other sources that estimate growth will be less than 100 GW. Speculative requests by data center developers make it challenging for grid operators and utilities to plan for future power needs. To reduce the risks of overbuilding, some utilities are introducing standardized large-load interconnection processes, and others are requiring data center developers to shoulder more of the upfront costs.
• North American construction and engineering spending in 2025 is expected to grow by 3% after increasing an estimated 7% in 2024, according to FMI’s second-quarter 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Nonresidential building construction spending is forecast to be flat in 2025 as growth in amusement and recreation (+7%), transportation (+3%), public safety (+3%), and educational (+3%) is offset by weakness in commercial (-7%), lodging (-5%), and manufacturing (-1%). Amid high mortgage interest rates and a lack of affordability, single-family construction spending is forecast to rise by 3% in 2025. A recent jump in new apartment supply and unfavorable cost conditions will reduce multifamily spending by 12% in 2025.