Clothing Stores NAICS 458110

Sep 23, 2025 - Retail Imports Face Sharp Decline Through Year-End

• The Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates projects a sharp decline in US container imports through January 2026, following a July surge driven by preemptive shipments ahead of rising tariffs. For clothing retailers, reduced import volumes and volatile trade conditions heighten supply chain risk and compress margins. July saw a near-record 2.36 million TEU as retailers accelerated shipments ahead of tariff hikes. However, forecasts show steady declines from September through January 2026, and December is expected to mark the lowest import volume since March 2023. Expanding sectoral tariffs and trade policy uncertainty are complicating inventory planning and increasing cost pressures for retailers.
• Clothing and accessories store sales grew 8.2% unadjusted year over year in August 2025, supported by consumer spending ahead of expected tariffs, according to the CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor released by the National Retail Federation in InStore Magazine. The category was up 0.2% seasonally adjusted month over month. Total retail sales, excluding automobiles and gasoline, increased 6.8% unadjusted year over year in August 2025 and 0.5% seasonally adjusted month over month. Eight out of nine retail categories were higher in August compared to a year ago, led by digital products; sporting goods, hobby, music, and book stores; clothing and accessories stores; general merchandise stores; and grocery stores. The CNBC/NRF Retail Monitor uses actual, anonymized credit and debit card purchase data compiled by Affinity Solutions.

• Consumer mood indicators in the US declined, signaling growing economic unease. The Consumer Confidence Index fell 1.3 points in August 2025, driven primarily by younger consumers under 35, while confidence among those over 55 improved. Despite the dip, overall confidence remained consistent with recent months. Separately, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to 55.4 in preliminary September data, down from 58.2 in August and 21% below September 2024 levels. Inflation expectations held steady, though concerns about pricing pressures, particularly from tariffs, persist. These indices reflect consumers’ outlook on personal finances and the broader economy, serving as key predictors of future spending behavior.
• Back-to-school shopping is inching earlier, with 67% of respondents shopping in early July 2025 compared to 55% in 2024, according to an annual back-to-school survey released by the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights and Analytics. The top destinations for back-to-school shopping include online (55%), department stores (48%), discount stores (47%), and clothing stores (41%). Half of back-to-school families report shopping earlier this year, out of concern that prices will increase due to tariffs. According to the survey, “Consumers are being mindful of the potential impacts of tariffs and inflation on back-to-school items, and have turned to early shopping, discount stores and summer sales for savings on school essentials.” The survey estimates that total US back-to-school spending for families with students aged elementary through high school will reach $39.4 billion, up from $38.8 billion last year.