Coffee and Tea Manufacturers NAICS 311920

Feb 20, 2026 - Coffee Prices Expected to Rise

• Coffee prices are forecast to rise again by the end of this year, International Supermarkets News reports. If realized, US coffee manufacturers would face renewed increases in green‑coffee input costs, on the heels of two years of volatility driven by climate disruptions in Brazil and Vietnam, rising logistics costs, and strong global demand. Market models point to gradual price escalation through 2026, with potential peaks in Q4 as supply remains vulnerable to weather risks and traders hedge against future shortages, per ISN. For manufacturers, this means tighter margins, greater exposure to futures market swings, and the need for more active procurement strategies, including hedging and diversified sourcing. While increased global production could temporarily ease prices, ongoing volatility makes cost planning more difficult. Any sustained rise in raw‑coffee prices will eventually flow into roasting, packaging, and distribution costs, raising pressure to adjust wholesale and retail pricing.
• Brazilian coffee farmers increasingly are shifting from arabica to robusta coffee beans due to climate change, rising temperatures, and volatile weather that make arabica harder and more expensive to grow, Fresh Cup reported in December. Brazil is the world’s largest arabica grower and while arabica continues to dominate, robusta production has increased by 81% over the past decade. In just the last growing season, robusta production jumped nearly 22% compared to the previous harvest. As robusta production expands, its quality is improving, creating opportunities for manufacturers to introduce new flavor profiles and lower‑cost blends. The shift from arabica to robusta likely means higher arabica prices and tighter supply, which could pressure manufacturers’ margins. Coffee manufacturers could also meet resistance from consumers accustomed to arabica coffee and who may associate robusta beans with lower‑grade coffee.

• Even though President Trump lifted the steep import tariff on Brazilian coffee in November, coffee prices are expected to remain high, creating ongoing cost pressure for coffee manufacturers, Fresh Cup reports. While arabica and robusta futures briefly fell after the tariff cuts, underlying global factors, such as poor harvests, climate volatility, and supply chain instability, continue to keep prices elevated. That’s bad news for US coffee manufacturers, which can’t count on meaningful relief on bean costs in the near term. Persistently high wholesale prices will continue to squeeze margins, especially for those who rely on specialty arabica beans. Unfortunately for coffee lovers, Trump's tariff removal offered only symbolic relief, while real-world costs for manufacturers remain stubbornly high.
• Producer prices for coffee and tea manufacturers are soaring, driven by high prices for coffee beans and tea leaves due to poor harvests and labor shortages in key growing areas and tariffs (lifted in November). The producer price index for coffee and tea manufacturers, which measures prices producers receive for their products, jumped 23.5% in November compared to a year ago, after climbing 11.6% in the previous November-versus-November annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. At the retail level, coffee prices rose 18.8% year over year in November, per the Labor Department’s Consumer Price Index November 2025 report. Employment by makers of coffee, tea, and other food products shrank 1.2% YoY in November, while average wages at food manufacturers rose 1.6% YoY in December to a new high of $24.25 per hour, BLS data show.