Commercial Building Contractors NAICS 2362

Feb 6, 2026 - Nonresidential Building Spending to Remain Sluggish Through 2027

• Weak nonresidential building construction activity may soften demand for architectural paints. Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. Spending on nonresidential building construction is expected to rise 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Through 2027, commercial facility growth will be led by data centers, with spending increasing 26.3% in 2026 and 16.5% in 2027. However, offices are expected to see a sharp decline in spending over the forecast period, while warehouse and retail will see weak growth this year and modest gains in 2027. Manufacturing construction spending will fall 3.9% in 2026 and drop 2.8% next year. Spending on institutional projects will grow 2.7% this year, and 2.8% in 2027, led by steady growth in the health sector, but educational, and amusement and recreation project spending will be flat.
• Contractors are entering 2026 with subdued expectations as economic uncertainty, tariffs, immigration enforcement, and persistent labor shortages weigh on confidence, even as demand for data centers and power projects remains strong. The Associated General Contractors of America’s latest outlook shows contractors are optimistic about data center growth, with 65% expecting the market to grow. Still, contractor sentiment regarding education, lodging, office, and retail construction all declined sharply compared to last year. Many firms report project delays or cancellations due to financing challenges and rising material and labor costs, and more than 80% struggle to fill both craft and salaried positions.

• The construction industry is turning to AI tools and agents to ease project managers’ workloads and prepare for a wave of retirements that could claim 41% of the workforce by 2031, according to the National Center for Construction Research and Education and reporting by The Wall Street Journal. Companies such as Procore, Trimble, and Autodesk are rolling out AI systems that analyze safety risks, summarize documents, extract data, and automate routine tasks, helping address what the Associated Builders and Contractors expect will be a shortage of about 349,000 workers. Startups are using computer vision to track job progress and match workers with open roles, while natural language processing lets superintendents dictate logs and speed daily reporting. Firms say AI can also preserve the expertise of veteran builders by capturing their decision-making and best practices. About 60% of construction companies use some form of AI, but adoption remains uneven.
• North American construction and engineering spending on nonresidential buildings in 2026 is expected to be flat after decreasing an estimated 2% in 2025, according to FMI’s first-quarter 2026 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. A subset of the office sector, data centers will post spending growth of 23% in 2026 amid high demand for AI. In some markets, data centers account for 25% of all nonresidential building construction activity. The traditional office market remains under pressure from a record-high vacancy rate of 21%, according to Moody's Analytics. Healthcare construction spending is forecast to rise 3% in 2026 amid large hospital projects in several major metros, while educational project spending will be flat. Commercial spending is projected to decline by 4% in 2026 as construction activity centers on renovations rather than new buildings. Warehouse construction spending is expected to fall by 5% in 2026 amid an imbalance in supply and demand, especially in secondary markets away from major port, rail, and intermodal hubs. Lodging projects are forecast to decline by 2% in 2026 as remodeling and improvements drive spending.