Crop Production NAICS 111

Apr 23, 2026 - Fertilizer Prices Are Soaring

• Soaring fertilizer prices driven by the Iran war are creating significant risks for US crop production during the critical spring planting season, NPR reports. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz have halted nearly half of global urea exports, causing nitrogen fertilizer prices to spike about 30% and creating an expected US shortage of roughly 2 million tons. Higher input costs are forcing farmers to make difficult planting decisions. Some may reduce fertilizer application, lowering crop yields, while others may shift acreage away from nitrogen-intensive crops like corn toward soybeans, which require less fertilizer. In extreme cases, farmers may leave fields unplanted. Supply constraints are compounded by limited global production capacity and shortages of key inputs like natural gas and sulfur. Elevated fertilizer costs and shortages threaten to reduce crop output, alter planting patterns, and increase volatility in agricultural production in the near term.
• The USDA’s closely-watched Prospective Plantings report, released in late March, reveals farmers’ intentions for planted acreage for principal crops in 2026. Among the key takeaways is an expectation for corn acreage to decline from 2025 highs, with farmers intending to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from last year’s elevated levels, reflecting tighter margins and higher fertilizer costs. Soybean acreage is expected to expand modestly, with soybean plantings reaching 84.7 million acres, up 4% year over year, supported by lower nitrogen requirements, strong domestic crush demand, and crop rotation following large corn acreage in 2025. Wheat plantings decline to a record low 43.8 million acres, while cotton increases modestly. Market uncertainty could still shift final acreage decisions. Volatility in fertilizer markets due to the Iran war, evolving export demand, particularly from China, and spring weather conditions may influence how acres are ultimately allocated.

• US soybean farmers face a pivotal moment as global trade dynamics shift and Brazil’s rapid expansion reshapes the competitive landscape, Farm Journal reports. Although China has committed to 12 MMT of US soybean purchases under the current trade truce, and may add politically motivated “goodwill” buys, high Chinese tariffs still block private crushers from purchasing US beans, keeping America a secondary supplier behind Brazil. Future commitments, including a proposed 25 MMT per year for three years, remain unconfirmed, adding uncertainty for growers. Meanwhile, Brazil’s robust production growth, infrastructure improvements, and deep trade ties with China continue to erode US export share. With global deglobalization trends and shrinking US market dominance, experts urge farmers to shift focus from maximizing volume to protecting margins. Also, a planned 30% expansion in US soybean processing offers a domestic demand buffer, and incentive for producers to focus on building domestic demand.
• Record‑high copper prices have triggered a surge in copper theft across the nation’s farms, causing major damage to irrigation systems, pumps, and electrical infrastructure, Farm Journal reports. Ground zero of copper theft arguably is central California’s Tulare County, often ranked as the US’s top ag-producing county. For crop producers, this crime wave leads to higher repair costs, unexpected downtime, and lost yield potential, especially when thieves target pivot wiring or pump stations during critical irrigation windows. A new farm security innovation, Cop‑R‑Lock, is designed to deter theft by physically securing copper components and providing constant monitoring. Dubbed the watchman that never sleeps, the new technology reduces the risk of irrigation outages, protecting crop health during heat or drought. Cop‑R‑Lock lowers maintenance and replacement costs, which have soared due to repeated theft incidents, and offers greater operational reliability, especially in remote fields where surveillance is difficult, according to Farm Journal.