Crop Production NAICS 111

Oct 23, 2025 - Farm Bailout on Hold

• The government shutdown is delaying aid President Trump promised to US farmers facing the financial pain of his tariffs on China, Politico reports. US soybean farmers, for example, who sell more than half of their crop to China, saw that market disappear this year as China shifted purchasing to other nations in retaliation for Trump’s trade war. Moreover, the multi-billion-dollar bailout package is needed soon so farmers can begin planning for next year’s planting season. The administration has yet to finalize how much money to include in the first tranche of aid, how to pay for it, and how to deploy it, according to Politico. Speaking to Fox News Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins noted the agency’s readiness to issue the promised aid soon as the shutdown ends. However, nearly half of the USDA’s staff has been furloughed and local offices closed.
• Leading indicators for the farm sector’s financial health all show elevated risk, according to the latest report from the Rural and Farm Finance Policy Analysis Center. The report tracks 14 financial indicators organized in four classes: Farmer and banker sentiment; Farm income and balance sheet health; Farm machinery market dynamics; and Credit quality. The risk rating (on a 1-10 scale, with 1 being low risk and 10 high risk) is 6.2. The farm machinery market showed the biggest signs of deterioration, with a risk rating of 5.7, while farm income and balance sheet health, and credit quality carry a risk rating of 5.8 each, and farmer and banker sentiment at 5.9. The forecast shows a decline in net cash income for the two crop farm business types: a 1% decline for specialty crops farm businesses and a 14.8% drop for corn farm businesses.

• Heat and extreme weather are driving short-term surges in food prices around the globe, The Wall Street Journal reports citing a study led by Spain’s Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC). Adverse weather conditions are driving up the price of staples including potatoes, rice, onions, lettuce, and fruit, per the BSC report. “Until we get to net-zero emissions, extreme weather will only get worse, but it’s already damaging crops and pushing up the price of food all over the world,” Maximillian Kotz, a research fellow at the BSC, told WSJ. In the US, vegetable prices in California and Arizona jumped 80% year over year in November 2022 after extreme drought, while in Ethiopia food prices rose 40% in March 2023 following a drought in 2022. Last year was the hottest year on record. With temperatures continuing to climb, weather conditions and further price shocks are to be expected, per the BSC report.
• Agronomists are encouraging farmers to be on the lookout for tar spot after the disease was confirmed in corn fields in two midwestern states in June, AgWeb reports. Tar spot, a foliar disease of corn caused by the fungus Phyllachora maydis, was first confirmed in the US in 2015 in Illinois and Indiana. The Crop Protection Network reported the disease was found on June 11 northeast Kansas and Indiana. Corn crops with extended periods of leaf wetness – due to fog, high relative humidity, or rain – are most vulnerable, according to Bryant Luers, LG Seeds field agronomist. Tar spot develops rapidly, overwinters in residue and can travel airborne from neighboring fields making it nearly impossible to eradicate completely. It’s also more aggressive than typical Corn Belt diseases. Tracking daily humidity levels is a good way to scout for the disease.