Forging and Stamping NAICS 3321

Jun 21, 2025 - Trade Policies Depress Factory Activity

• US manufacturing activity contracted further in May, hitting its lowest level since November 2024, reflecting persistent concern over the impact of the Trump administration’s whipsawing trade policy, The Wall Street Journal reports. The Institute for Supply Management’s Manufacturing PMI – an indicator of US economic activity based on a survey of purchasing managers at manufacturing firms nationwide and considered a key indicator of the state of the US economy – fell to 48.5 in May, from 48.7 in April. (A reading below 50 indicates contraction). The last time the index was above 50 (indicating expansion) was in January and February, though that followed 26 consecutive months of contraction. New orders and backlog of orders indexes declined at slower rates than in April, though customers’ inventories and new export orders contracted more strongly. President Trump’s tariff whiplash is making it difficult for manufacturers to plan ahead.
• New tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to the US have a direct impact on small fabricators’ cost structures, bidding strategies, and overall competitiveness, according to Exiil, a provider of software to metal manufacturers. In March, President Trump raised steel and aluminum import tariffs to the US by 25% -- and then again to 50% -- ending all country exemptions, in addition to hiking tariffs on China, according to Reuters. Russian aluminum imports carry a tariff of 200%. Beyond raw metal, the US has increasingly added “downstream” or “derivative” products – such as stamped parts, fasteners, tubing, wire, or other items with high steel/aluminum content – to existing Section 232 tariffs. As a result, fabricators face higher materials costs. Even companies that source metals domestically are likely to pay more for metal as US mills often raise their prices when foreign competitors’ costs go up – because the “floor” of the market shifts.

• Metal stamping is among the industries likely to be most impacted by President Trump’s new 50% tariff on steel and aluminum imports. An International Trade Commission report on the impact of the 2018 Trump tariffs, which ranked industries by their dependence on steel and aluminum, found that motor vehicle metal stamping uses the most steel (58%). Reacting to Trump’s announcement, the Coalition of American Metal Manufacturers and Users (CAMMU) said in a statement: “Re-imposing 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from our allies and without a workable exclusion process puts US manufacturers directly in harm’s way.” It noted that under Section 232 tariffs already in effect US manufacturers are paying significantly more for steel and aluminum than their global competitors, undermining their ability to compete. The statement says small and medium-sized businesses are particularly vulnerable to losing contracts to overseas rivals with unrestricted access to these essential inputs.
• Producer prices for forging and stamping companies declined 2.1% in May compared to a year ago after falling 1.6% in the previous annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Industry producer prices have been trending downward since peaking three years ago (May 2022) but remain at historically high levels. Employment by forging and stamping companies was flat year over year in April, while average industry wages rose 9.2% over the same period to $26.24 per hour, pennies shy of their peak in March, BLS data show.