Framing Contractors NAICS 238130

Jan 7, 2026 - Builder Confidence in Negative Territory Every Month in 2025

• Home builder confidence in the single-family market increased in December but remained solidly in negative territory as builders face ongoing headwinds, including high construction costs, tariffs, and economic uncertainty, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Home builder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), rose one point to 39 in December 2025. Any HMI reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. Builder confidence readings remained below 50 for every month in 2025 and were in the high 30s in the fourth quarter. The HMI survey also showed that 40% of builders reduced home prices in December to lure potential buyers off the sidelines, and the average price reduction was 5%, down one percentage point from November.
• Wood framing contractors may see margin relief as lumber futures prices move lower. In the first week of January 2026, commodity prices for lumber were about $530 per thousand board feet - near the lowest levels since October 2024, according to Trading Economics. Weak demand combined with upticks in supply helped push prices lower. A sluggish housing market and persistently high mortgage rates in the range of 6% have kept a lid on new housing starts and large remodeling projects. Production cuts by Canadian sawmills have been offset by increasing supplies from the US South, increasing lumber availability. Inventories became elevated during the holiday season amid weak buyer demand and minimal seasonal restocking.

• The total value of nonresidential building construction starts in November fell 13.4% compared to October, according to Dodge Construction Network. Commercial starts declined 25.8. Office and data center starts dropped 40.5% and hotels were down 33.2%. Nonresidential building segments that posted growth in November included parking garages (+32.1%), retail stores (+8.3%), and warehouses (+6.4%). Institutional starts grew 11.4% as gains in public and education building starts offset declines in amusement and dormitories. Manufacturing starts remained volatile in November, declining 50.7% from October levels.
• An artificial intelligence investment boom is fueling demand for massive data centers, creating lucrative opportunities for construction workers, according to The Wall Street Journal. Tradespeople, such as electricians, welders, and project managers, are earning 25% to 30% more than they did before as tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft expand their networks. Workers report newfound stability and perks, as contractors face an estimated nationwide shortage of 439,000 workers, according to the Associated Builders and Contractors. Staffing gaps have disrupted more than half of data-center projects, and backlogs average nearly 11 months. Despite the strain, the surge has transformed lives, drawing apprentices into unions and prompting companies to hire remotely to meet demand. For many, the boom offers higher pay, job security, and opportunities that were once elusive in the construction industry.