Furniture Stores NAICS 449110

May 23, 2025 - Cooler Growth Expected

• The US furniture stores industry is projected to grow at a 0.62% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a new report in Retail Dive, the retail sector had 64,319 job cuts in the first four months of 2025, a nearly 300% increase year over year, and the second highest industry for job cuts. The Challenger, Gray & Christmas report found retail job cuts were up almost 80% year over year in April 2025, reaching 7,235. According to Andrew Challenger, an SVP at the consulting firm, “Generally, companies are citing the economy and new technology. Employers are slow to hire and limiting hiring plans as they wait and see what will happen with trade, supply chain, and consumer spending.” The US lost 603,000 jobs in total across all industries, the most since 2020, when over one million job cuts occurred. According to the report, nearly half of the cuts in the first four months were attributed to job eliminations by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE).

• According to a Furniture Today Strategic Insights survey of retailers, nearly half of respondents said that they floor at least 60% imported products, making their profit margins vulnerable to tariff impacts. Top sources of imported goods among respondents were China, Vietnam, Mexico, and Canada. A majority of retailers said they were very concerned about the new Trump administration’s tariffs on goods from China and the pending 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. More than half of respondents said they would not be willing to absorb any tariff-related price increase before passing the increases onto consumers, while one out of three said they could absorb a less than 10% increase.
• Consumers may adjust their furniture spending as consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, continues to fall in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices, according to two major indicators. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The Consumer Confidence Index declined by 7.9 points in April 2024, compared to the previous month. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index.