HVACR Equipment Manufacturers NAICS 3334

Jan 17, 2026 - HVAC Spending to Rise

• US construction spending on HVAC materials is expected to post solid annual growth in 2026, according to FMI's most recent Building Products Market Overview report. In 2026, residential HVAC spending is forecast to increase by 4.4% over 2025, while nonresidential HVAC spending is projected to grow by 2.7% over the same period. HVAC spending is being driven in part by updates to energy-efficiency codes for equipment, which will boost demand for new construction and retrofits. Wider adoption of high-efficiency heat pumps is also a tailwind for the HVAC industry. Residential HVAC equipment spending is forecast to rise another 5.1% in 2027 and 6.2% in 2028. Nonresidential HVAC spending is projected to increase by 3.8% in 2027 and 4.7% in 2028.
• New single-family home sales fell 0.1% month-over-month but were up 18.7% year-over-year in October 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. The October new home sales data was delayed due to the 43-day government shutdown. October's total new home sales reached 737,000 units, following two previous months of gains. Some industry watchers suggest that while mortgage rates gradually inched lower throughout 2025, they are likely to remain elevated, Reuters reports. Mortgage rates closely track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which is under upward pressure from the federal deficit and above-target inflation. There are emerging signals that labor-market concerns are weighing on new-home purchase demand. Homebuilding activity is a demand indicator for new HVAC equipment.

• A preliminary analysis from energy policy firm AnnDyl finds that a 200 MW data center could offset about 10% of its peak load by investing $50 million in residential efficiency upgrades, including smart thermostats, insulation, and air and duct sealing in nearby homes, according to Utility Dive. Modeled in Ohio’s capacity-strained PJM region, the upgrades would also generate roughly $3 million in annual customer savings and create more than 200 jobs. The study builds on Rewiring America’s broader research, which shows that hyperscalers could offset up to one-third of future capacity needs through large-scale residential electrification, such as subsidizing heat pumps, rooftop solar, and battery storage. While the AnnDyl package cannot fully counter a data center’s load, both reports highlight growing interest among tech companies in community-focused investments that ease grid strain, reduce emissions, and help address the rising public pushback against data center development.
• The Dodge Momentum Index (DMI) increased 7% in December 2025 to 296.8 (2000=100), up from the upwardly revised November reading of 277.7. The Momentum Index is a monthly measure of the first (or initial) report for nonresidential building projects in planning, which has been shown to lead construction spending for nonresidential buildings by a full year. On a monthly basis, the commercial planning component improved by 3.5%, while the institutional component rose by 14.9%. For the commercial sector, steady planning levels for data centers, office buildings, and warehouses provided a boost. Institutional planning increased amid stronger educational and recreational activity, while public building planning declined from earlier highs. Dodge’s associate director of forecasting, Sarah Martin, suggested that planning activity would likely remain nominal amid inflationary pressures and elevated economic risk.