Hobby, Toy and Game Stores NAICS 459120

Oct 27, 2025 - Consumer Sentiment Dips, Signaling Softer Sales for Specialty Retail

• Hobby, toy, and game stores face a cautious consumer environment as recent confidence and sentiment indexes point to weakened discretionary spending and heightened inflation concerns. In September 2025, the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board fell to 94.2, with job optimism down and inflation expectations high. Buying intentions dropped for cars and travel, while interest in homes and smartphones rose. Confidence declined across most age and income groups, especially among households earning $25,000–$35,000 and over $200,000. The consumer sentiment index held at 55.0 in October 2025 from the previous month, and was down 22% year-over-year, according to the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers. Overall, the data signals cautious consumer sentiment, which could dampen retail spending heading into the holiday season.
• The Retail Trade Industry is one of seven industries reporting contraction in September's Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Retail Trade industry reported increases in employment and order backlogs, along with faster supply deliveries and decreases in new orders, imports, and inventories in September. Additional industries reporting contraction during the period were Mining; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Construction; Management of Companies & Support Services; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Retail Trade; and Real Estate, Rental & Leasing. Ten industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Health Care & Social Assistance; Other Services; Information; Public Administration; Educational Services; Wholesale Trade; Finance & Insurance; Transportation & Warehousing; and Utilities. Overall, economic activity in the services sector was unchanged in September, with the Services PMI registering 50%.

• According to recently released Circana data, US toy sales rose 6% in the first half of 2025 and units sold were up 3%, an improvement over a lackluster performance in 2024. Average selling prices were up 3% in the first half of the year, notable as the average selling price has been flat for three consecutive years. The categories reporting the most growth during the period were puzzles and games (39%), explorative toys (19%), youth electronics (9%), action figures (8%), and building sets (7%). Sales of licensed toys were up 18% in the first half of 2025. Adults continue to drive growth for the market, with sales up 18% for recipients aged 18 and older. According to Juli Lennett, VP and toy industry advisor at Circana, “The toy industry is showing strength during this period as consumers are holding their breath and waiting for higher prices to kick in.”
• According to a recent report in the Wall Street Journal, retailers are cutting back on free shipping to offset tariff costs. Some retailers are eliminating free shipping, while others are raising the amount that customers must spend to qualify for free shipping, as a way to pass along higher costs to consumers. One fashion lunchbox retailer has raised the threshold for shoppers to qualify for free shipping to $300 from $150. Retail-technology provider Narvar noted that the average minimum-order threshold for retailers to offer free shipping has increased from $82 in 2023 to $103 in 2025. Adjusting the shipping price is appealing to retailers since it does not change the front-facing shopping price to consumers, per Narvar CEO Anisa Kumar. Officials at toy seller Lovevery said customer research showed that removing free shipping was “one of the least objectionable things we could do,” noting they have not lost many customers as a result.