Home Centers & Hardware Stores NAICS 444110, 444140

Jul 23, 2025 - Remodeling Spending Growth to Slow

• Home remodeling spending growth is expected to remain flat in 2025 and the first half of 2026, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Homeowner improvements and repairs are expected to increase 2% to $509 billion in the third quarter of 2025 compared to Q3 2024. In the fourth quarter of 2025, remodeling spending will rise quarter-over-quarter to $511 billion, up 1.8% from Q4 2024. Spending will increase to $524 billion in Q1 2026, up 2.2% from Q1 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, year-over-year spending is forecast to rise 1.2% to $518 billion. Joint Center expects a weak housing market to put downward pressure on remodeling spending. However, recent federal cuts to incentives for efficiency improvements may spur short-term growth as homeowners make upgrades before benefits expire at the end of the year.
• On June 23, 2025, the US Commerce Department imposed new import tariffs on steel derivative products, which could increase prices for imported appliances. The tariffs, set at 50%, are levied on the value of the steel content of imported products. Major appliances, such as washing machines, dryers, refrigerators, dishwashers, and stoves, contain large amounts of steel. The tariffs are designed to level the playing field for US-made appliances, which typically contain steel that is more expensive than the steel content in many imported appliances. If tariffs increase imported appliance prices, home centers may adjust their product offerings.

• Single-family housing starts decreased 4.6% in June 2025 from May, marking the weakest starts activity since June 2024, according to the US Census Bureau. Permitting activity for single-family housing – an indicator of future homebuilding activity – rose 0.2% in June compared to the month before. High interest rates, economic uncertainty, and an oversupply of unsold new homes are weighing on the US homebuilding market, according to Reuters. The inventory of new homes waiting to be sold is the highest since 2007. Some economists suggest that lower interest rates would be a lifeline for the sluggish housing market, but the Federal Reserve is concerned that lowering rates could exacerbate the inflationary effects of the Trump administration’s tariff policies.
• Home builder confidence in the single-family market rose slightly in July but remained in negative territory for the 15th consecutive month, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Home builder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), increased one point to 33 in June 2025. Any HMI reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. The US housing market faces headwinds from high interest rates and economic uncertainty. The HMI survey also showed that 37% of builders have reduced home prices to lure potential buyers off the sidelines, although the average price reduction of 5% has remained unchanged since November 2024.