Locksmiths NAICS 561622

Mar 24, 2026 - Architecture Billings Near Flat, Signals Mixed Demand

• Demand for locksmithing services may stabilize but remains under pressure as a key leading indicator shows only modest improvement, according to a report by the American Institute of Architects (AIA). The AIA Architecture Billings Index rose to 49.4 in February 2026, still below the 50 threshold indicating contraction, though near flat after prior declines. While project inquiries increased and the decline in new design contracts slowed, overall billings continued to fall across regions and specializations. Looking ahead, 48% of firms expect stable billings, while 31% anticipate increases of over 5%. For the US locksmithing industry, this suggests a potential bottoming in construction-related demand, but continued softness in new project activity may limit near-term growth.
• Improving consumer sentiment may support demand for locksmithing services, though underlying caution persists, according to the latest Consumer Confidence Survey from the Conference Board. The Consumer Confidence Index rose 2.2 points to 91.2 in February 2026, while the Expectations Index increased to 72.0, signaling less pessimism about future conditions. However, the Present Situation Index declined to 120.0, and views of current business conditions weakened, with 19.0% of consumers reporting conditions as “bad” (up from 17.3%). Consumers remain focused on inflation and costs, and planned spending is shifting toward essential services over discretionary activities. For the US locksmithing industry, this suggests stable but price-sensitive demand, with growth tied to necessity-driven services rather than discretionary security upgrades.

• According to the 2025 State of the Industry report in Locksmith Ledger, US locksmiths are experiencing a period of adaptation and moderate growth as business models shift and technology adoption accelerates. In 2025, 45% of locksmiths operate primarily as mobile businesses, while retail locksmith shops rebounded to 32%, up from 26.3% in 2024, signaling renewed demand for storefront services. Service diversification is driving impact: 85% now perform commercial door hardware installation (up from 75% in 2024), 54% offer stand-alone access control, and 30% provide networked access control, reflecting growing electronic integration. Financially, momentum is improving; 40.5% of locksmiths reported revenue growth in 2025, and 38.5% reported profit growth, while those reporting significant revenue decline fell to 13%. However, cost pressures remain acute, with 54.5% citing controlling costs as their top challenge and 18% already impacted by tariffs.
• Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, a demand indicator for business-related lock-changing services, rose 67% in February 2026 year over year, reaching 814 filings, according to Epiq AACER and ABI data. The total commercial filings increased 21% in February 2026 year over year, totaling 2,666 commercial filings. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, increased 91% in February 2026 year over year. ABI Executive Director Amy Quakenboss said in a statement that the Subchapter V filings have grown for eight consecutive months boosted by inflation, high interest rates, tightening credit, and geopolitical headwinds.