Locksmiths NAICS 561622

Jul 24, 2025 - Bankruptcy Filings Decline

• Commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcy filings, a demand indicator for business-related lock-changing services, dropped 38% in June 2025 year over year, according to Epiq AACER and ABI data. The total number of commercial Chapter 11 bankruptcies filed in June 2025 was 622, compared to 996 filings a year ago. The total commercial filings declined 8% in June 2025 year over year, to 2,571 commercial filings. Small business filings, captured as Subchapter V elections within Chapter 11, fell 23% in June year over year. According to ABI Executive Director Amy Quakenboss, “Elevated prices, increased borrowing costs and uncertain geopolitical events continue to add to the growing debt loads shouldered by financially distressed families and small businesses.”
• Consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, increased slightly in July 2025, rising to 61.8 in preliminary July data from 60.7 in June, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan hit a recent peak in December of 74, buoyed following the presidential election, but dropped to 52.2 in April 2025 as consumers expressed uncertainty about tariff effects and rising inflation. In July, respondents’ inflation expectations for the coming year were an anticipated price increase of 4.4%, which was tracking higher than in January, when respondents expected prices to grow by 3.9%. However, July’s inflation expectation results were lower than June’s, when respondents expected a 5% price increase for the coming year. The index serves as a predictor of consumer spending as it indicates consumers’ perception of their financial prospects and the broader economy.

• Sales for the US locksmiths industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 4.84% between 2025 and 2029, faster than the overall economy’s growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the management and administrative services sector, which includes locksmith services. Progress post-pandemic in general has come slowly, but services industries are expected to recover more substantially. Factors that may limit consumer spending are higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation provides support for a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• According to the Jobber Home Service Economic Report released in February 2025, volatile consumer demand, a recovering housing market, and accelerating digital payment adoption are trends for home service businesses such as cleaners, landscapers, locksmiths, and HVAC technicians. The report noted that 2024 was marked by increased volatility across all Home Service segments. Median revenue growth for service providers showed some upward movement during Q3 and Q4, compared to a year ago, attributed to higher prices. “While revenue dipped at times, the latter half of the year showed improvement,” noted the report. The outlook for the home services sector in 2025 is promising as inflation stabilizes, consumer demand grows, and the job market remains strong, according to the Jobber report. Consumers continue to increase their adoption of digital payments. The report noted that digital payments were about 47% of total payments in Q4 2024 with the expectation to reach 50% in 2025.