Packaging and Labeling Services NAICS 561910

May 28, 2025 - Headwinds to Slow US Manufacturing Growth

• US manufacturing growth is expected to slow in 2025 amid trade strife, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Spring 2025 Supply Chain Planning Forecast. Manufacturing revenue is forecast to rise by 0.1%, 4.1 percentage points below the ISM’s previous forecast released in December 2025. Just over a third of the ISM survey respondents said they expect revenues to increase in 2025, 22% said revenues will fall, and 44% expect no change. Capital expenditures are projected to decrease by 1.3% in 2025, a significant drop from a 5.2% rise forecasted in the ISM’s December 2024 report. Manufacturing activity is a leading demand driver for packaging and labeling services.
• Durable goods orders – a demand indicator for packaging and labeling services – fell in April as tariff worries tempered demand. April durable goods orders decreased 6.3% from March, slightly better than a 7.8% decline forecast by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal. The drop in durable goods orders was led by a 51.5% decline in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. April’s durable goods orders followed a 7.6% rise in March as orders swelled ahead of anticipated tariffs. Excluding transportation equipment, US durable goods orders in April were up 0.2% over March.

• Some packaging manufacturers and trade groups have expressed concerns that the Trump administration’s tariff-based trade policies could disrupt packaging trade flows and increase costs, according to Packaging Dive. The American Forest & Paper Association suggested trade strife could disrupt North America’s complex paper product supply chains. Several paper companies – including Cascades, Clearwater Paper, and Smurfit Westrock – expressed concerns about escalating US-Canada trade tensions during earnings calls in February. In a recent statement, the Aluminum Association said the US aluminum industry imports about two-thirds of its primary aluminum from Canada because US smelters operating at 100% capacity cannot meet demand. The Plastics Industry Association recently stated deep concerns about tariffs as the US imported and exported more than $70 billion in plastics in 2023.
• The global market for labels and release liners is valued at $47.2 billion in 2025 and is projected to post average annual growth of 3.6% through 2030, reaching a value of more than $56.3 billion, according to market research firm Smithers. Key demand drivers include packaging volumes and sustainability. Major product areas include paper, film, and ink labels.