Painting & Wall Covering Contractors NAICS 238320

Jan 17, 2026 - Remodeler Sentiment Holds Solid

• The NAHB/Westlake Royal Remodeling Market Index (RMI) reading for the fourth quarter of 2025 was 64, up four points from the previous quarter, according to a January 2026 report by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Any RMI reading over 50 indicates that most remodelers feel market conditions are good. In the fourth quarter, the Current Conditions Index portion of the RMI rose three points to 71 compared to Q3 2025. The Future Indicators Index component of the RMI increased by four points to 56. While aging US housing stock, strong homeowner equity, and the aging-in-place trend kept the RMI solidly in positive territory in Q4 2025, the NAHB noted that high building costs and waning consumer confidence continue to pose challenges to the remodeling industry.
• Sales of existing US homes increased by 5.1% in December from November and were up 1.4% year-over-year, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). NAR chief economist Lawrence Yun said, "2025 was another tough year for homebuyers, marked by record-high home prices and historically low home sales. However, in the fourth quarter, conditions began improving, with lower mortgage rates and slower home price growth. December home sales, after adjusting for seasonal factors, were the strongest in nearly three years. The gains were broad-based, with all four major regions improving from the prior month." Existing home sales are a key demand driver for painting and wallcovering services, as sellers typically refresh paint before putting homes on the market, and buyers often make renovations before moving in.

• New single-family home sales fell 0.1% month-over-month but were up 18.7% year-over-year in October 2025, according to the US Census Bureau. The October new home sales data was delayed due to the 43-day government shutdown. October's total new home sales reached 737,000 units, following two previous months of gains. Some industry watchers suggest that while mortgage rates gradually inched lower throughout 2025, they are likely to remain elevated, Reuters reports. Mortgage rates closely track the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield, which is under upward pressure from the federal deficit and above-target inflation. There are emerging signals that labor-market concerns are weighing on new-home purchase demand. Homebuilding activity is a demand driver for paint and wall covering contractors.
• President Trump’s tariffs and immigration crackdown are straining US homebuilders, raising costs and worsening labor shortages, according to The New York Times. Builders face higher prices for steel, copper, lumber, and other materials, with tariffs adding up to $10,900 to the cost of a typical home, according to the National Association of Home Builders. Immigration enforcement has made workers fearful, delaying projects and shrinking crews. Construction added only 6,000 jobs through August, despite an Associated Builders and Contractors projection that nearly 500,000 more workers will be needed in 2026. Builders are slowing activity, cutting budgets, and bracing for slower growth as high mortgage rates and weak demand are dragging down sales. Economists warn that even if interest rates fall, labor and material pressures could intensify.