Paper Products Manufacturers NAICS 3222

Jun 6, 2025 - Headwinds to Slow US Manufacturing Growth

• US manufacturing growth is expected to slow in 2025 amid trade strife, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainties, according to the Institute for Supply Management’s Spring 2025 Supply Chain Planning Forecast. Manufacturing revenue is forecast to rise by 0.1%, 4.1 percentage points below the ISM’s previous forecast released in December 2025. Over a third of the ISM survey respondents expect revenues to increase in 2025, 22% said revenues will fall, and 44% expect no change. Capital expenditures are projected to decrease by 1.3% in 2025, a significant drop from a 5.2% rise forecasted in the ISM’s December 2024 report. Manufacturing activity is a leading demand driver for paper and paper products.
• Containerboard and boxboard prices were mostly flat in May, compared to the month before, according to Fastmarkets RISI and reporting by Packaging Dive. However, uncoated recycled board was an exception, rising $30 per ton. Containerboard demand was unchanged in May from April. Containerboard prices could get a lift from a planned August closure of a Georgia-Pacific containerboard plant, which could reduce supplies, according to a Truist Securities paper and packaging analyst. Some containerboard producers are more optimistic about the second half of 2025, as the Trump administration’s recent 90-day pause on 145% tariffs on Chinese imports eased trade tensions.

• In a March press release, the American Forest & Paper Association (AFPA) suggested that trade strife could disrupt North America’s complex paper product supply chains. AFPA President and CEO Heidi Block said, “Pulp and paper mills are strategically located across the United States to efficiently and sustainably create essential products for everyday use. From turning wood chips into pulp, pulp into base stock, and then transforming that raw material into a product that is then packaged for distribution, our industry’s manufacturing process involves many stages that can each happen at different facilities on both sides of the border.” During earnings calls in February, several paper companies – including Cascades, Clearwater Paper, and Smurfit Westrock – expressed concerns about escalating US-Canada trade tensions, according to Packaging Dive.
• The US paper product manufacturing industry is expected to experience sluggish sales growth in the coming years, and the overall economy's growth will outpace it. The industry’s year-over-year sales fell to 1.1% in 2024 after increasing 1.2% in 2023, according to Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Sales growth is projected to rise to 1.9% in 2025, then see average annual growth of about 1.5% through 2029, according to Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc.