Petroleum Product Wholesalers NAICS 424720

Jun 23, 2025 - Lower Crude Production Forecast

• The Energy Information Administration is forecasting lower US crude-oil production as drilling activity slows, The Wall Street Journal reported in June. The agency said it expects crude production is likely to fall over the next 18 months as producers cut back on drilling in response to lower oil prices. In its latest monthly Short Term Energy Outlook, the EIA forecast output to slip to 13.3 million barrels a day in Q4 2026 from a record 13.5 million barrels a day in Q2 2025, citing a decline in active drilling rigs. Oil services company Baker Hughes reported there were 442 rigs drilling for oil in the US during the first week of June, the fewest since October 2021, per WSJ. However, since the EIA issued its outlook oil prices have spiked about 18% to date following attacks by Israel and the US on Iran. If sustained, higher crude prices could encourage more US drilling.
• The Energy Information Administration is forecasting the inflated-adjusted US average regular gasoline price this summer to be the lowest since 2020. The summer 2025 average price of about $3.10 per gallon is based on the average of the 2Q25 and 3Q25 US regular gasoline price, when increased travel during the warmer months of the year puts upward pressure on gas prices. Looking ahead to 2026, EIA is forecasting a US average summer retail price of regular gas near $3.20 per gallon. Compared with recent years, lower forecasted US gasoline prices in 2025 and 2026 are mainly a result of lower crude oil prices. Although the agency expects crude oil prices to continue to fall in 2026, creating a downward effect on gasoline prices, that effect is offset by refinery closures and lower gasoline inventories, which cause refining margins for gasoline to rise.

• President Trump has moved to pull the plug on the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure program (NEVI), his predecessor’s initiative to build a nationwide network of EV charging stations, Politico reports. In February, Trump instructed states not to spend federal funds previously allocated to them under the program. In a letter to state transportation directors, the Federal Highway Administration said that it was scrapping guidance issued in 2023 implementing the NEVI program. However, the letter says states will be able to receive reimbursements for “existing obligations” to design and build stations “in order to not disrupt current financial commitments.” Whether Trump can choose not to spend funds allocated by congress is likely to face legal challenges. Still, Trump's move to block future EV charging station construction and his pro fossil fuels policies, brightens the outlook for suppliers of traditional motor fuels.
• Producer prices for petroleum and petroleum products merchant wholesalers were relatively unchanged in May compared to a year ago after rising 2.7% in the previous May-versus-May annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. The average price for regular motor gasoline was $3.15 per gallon in May, down 0.7% from April and 12.6% from May 2024, according to the Bureau of Transportation Statistics. Employment by the industry declined 1.1% year over year in April, while average industry wages jumped 12.9% YoY to a new high of $34.79 per hour, BLS data show. Factors driving wage inflation for distributors of petroleum products include a shortage of fuel truck drivers.