Trucking Companies NAICS 484110, 484121, 484122, 484210, 484220, 484230

Jul 11, 2025 - Freight Demand Expected to Remain Flat in 2025

• Trucking companies expect freight demand to remain flat this year as the industry heads into its busiest time of the year when retailers load up on back-to-school and holiday products. Whipsawing US tariff policies causing fast shifts in import and inventory volume hit trucking hard in a year when the industry expected to make a comeback from a three-year decline. The Cass Freight Index, which measures US shipping demand, fell 4% year over year in May as companies who stocked up on inventory ahead of tariffs now have less use for freight transportation, squelching demand. The overall effect is sinking freight rates, with the average contract rate for May at $2.36 a mile, down 7 cents from the previous year. The industry is also pulling back on investments with orders for heavy duty trucks in May falling to one of the lowest levels in two years, per ACT Research.
• Truck drivers must be able to proficiently read and speak English in order to haul freight in the United States or risk losing their license according to new guidance from the Department of Transportation (DOT). The policy allows authorities to pull over truck drivers and give them a roadside English test. If they don’t pass, they will be taken off the road, although there is some question about how state and local law enforcement will identify possible violations. Previously, drivers who were not English speakers were issued a ticket, but the new DOT policy removes the driver from the road altogether. The change is designed to improve highway safety by ensuring drivers can read road signs and signals, be able to communicate with the general public and officials, and write reports. According to forecaster FTR Intelligence, there were more than 15,000 English proficiency violations in the last two years.

• The trucking industry still struggles with the Great Freight Recession as bankruptcies for trucking and logistics companies continue to creep higher in 2025 as a result of the US trade war. Trucking saw a marked increase in bankruptcies so far in Q2, with about 17 freight carriers either going out of business or attempting to reorganize. So far this year there have been a total of about 20-25 total trucking companies declaring bankruptcy. Large and small, or regional or national, no carrier is immune to the decline in available freight from tariffs on imported goods. One week in June alone saw three major carriers file for relief - Dolce Truckload, Contract Managed Services, and GD Transport. Other carriers have simply shut down without filing or explanation, including Illinois-based LTI Trucking and Florida’s Davis Express, both in April. Industry analysts expect the trend to continue if progress isn’t made on trade policies.
• Trucking companies enjoyed a hiring boost in April 2025 as companies raced to stockpile inventory ahead of anticipated tariffs, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The industry added 1,000 drivers last month, the fourth straight month of growth, helping to prop up a profession that has been bleeding jobs since 2022. The gains might be short-lived, though, if a protracted trade war continues to squeeze supply lines and leads to consumer goods shortages and empty trucks. On the other hand, if trade deals with China and other countries are signed, trucking employment could stabilize. According to David Spence, VP Market Intelligence with Arrive Logistics, “Should deals be reached with China and our other key trading partners, we could see a resurgence in demand that would generate a need for additional capacity and enable employment to hold steady or even increase from here.”