Vending Machine Operators NAICS 445132

May 22, 2025 - Slower Growth Expected

• Sales for the US vending machine operators industry are projected to grow at a 2.8% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, slower than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• Vending machines carrying pop culture collectible Labubu dolls operated by Chinese retailer Pop Mart have been creating crowds in Florida and Maryland, according to Vending Times. Pop Mart launched the vending machines at malls selling the toys in “blind boxes” where consumers don’t know which dolls they’ll get. The “blind boxes” often result in unboxing videos on social media channels from customers who share their surprise as they unbox the dolls. Local news reported long lines at the vending machines to purchase the dolls, which are popular among Gen Z and other collectors. According to Time Magazine, Pop Mart operates 530 retail stores globally in addition to 2,490 vending machines, also called roboshops.

• According to Vending Market Watch, new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could drive up food prices for manufacturers, which could have a trickle-down effect on the vending industry as manufacturers absorb the higher costs. President Donald Trump has enacted numerous tariffs including additional tariffs on imports from China, a tariff on imported steel and aluminum, reciprocal tariffs on 90 countries, and tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. Categories affected by the tariffs include fruits and vegetables, grains, sugar, tree nuts, coffee, soda, and livestock. Major US food companies, including PepsiCo, J.M. Smucker, and Conagra, have petitioned the Trump administration for specific tariff exemptions on imports of cocoa, coffee, spices, and tropical fruits, which are essential to products but not produced domestically. The Consumer Brands Association, which represents the companies, said a tariff exemption would help manage manufacturing costs and reduce the impact on consumer prices.
• Consumers may reduce their vending purchases as consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, continues to fall in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices, according to two major indicators. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The Consumer Confidence Index declined by 7.9 points in April 2024, compared to the previous month. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index.