Wineries NAICS 312130

Feb 28, 2026 - Another Disappointing Year for Wine

• Silicon Valley Bank’s 2026 State of the US Wine Industry report confirms another year of contraction, with 2025 sales falling to 329 million cases and $74.3 billion in value, both down from 2024. Although the rate of decline has slowed, the industry remains in a prolonged demand slump driven by shifting consumer habits, oversupply, and weakening interest in wines under $12, according to SVB. Premium wineries also saw slight declines, with revenues down 1.2%. A glut of bulk wine is fueling rapid growth in private‑label programs at major retailers, intensifying price competition and pressuring margins. Elevated inventories across the supply chain, fewer tasting‑room visits, and lower per‑customer spending are straining smaller wineries reliant on hospitality. SVB forecasts demand will bottom out between 2027–2028, meaning wineries must adapt now by tightening inventory management, strengthening direct‑to‑consumer channels, and refining brand value.
• AI is becoming a major sales accelerator for wineries as wine e-commerce grows from $13 billion in 2025 toward a projected $16 billion by 2029, Vinetur reports. With consumers overwhelmed by thousands of online wine options, AI tools, including personalized recommendations, conversational search, and digital sommeliers, reduce decision fatigue and guide shoppers toward more confident purchases, including lesser‑known winery labels. Data from early 2025 shows AI-driven traffic produces 23% lower bounce rates and 41% longer shopping sessions, giving wineries more opportunities for product discovery and upselling. Conversion gaps between AI-assisted and traditional shopping have also narrowed sharply, indicating rising consumer trust in AI recommendations. For wineries, this means greater visibility in crowded marketplaces, higher engagement with brand stories and tasting profiles, and a stronger likelihood of converting browsers into buyers even as overall wine consumption declines.

• Republic National Distributing Company (RNDC) exited California at the beginning of September, leaving thousands of wineries scrambling, Meininger’s International reported in June. The departure of the nation's second-largest wine-and-spirits distributor from California means US and foreign wineries are left without a route to market in one of the most important wine markets in the world, according to Meininger’s. California law requires wineries to go through a wholesaler to sell their products to retailers and restaurants, while wineries in California are allowed limited self-distribution. The CEO of the Texas-based distributor said the decision to leave California was “driven by rising operational costs, industry headwinds, and supplier changes that made the market unsustainable.” RNDC’s departure from the Golden State means that wineries contracting with the company must now find new wholesalers in an historically depressed wine market.
• Producer prices for wineries rose 1% in November compared to a year ago after posting a flat previous November-versus-November annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Wineries lack of pricing power is due to weak demand both at home and overseas resulting in a multiyear slide in sales. Data through late 2025 indicate the US wine market is on track to see sales decline for a fifth straight year, according to Vinetur. In November, employment by breweries, wineries, and distilleries grew 4.8% year over year, per the BLS.