Aluminum Production NAICS 3313

Jul 18, 2025 - Q1: Imports Up, Exports Down

• The United States is a net importer of aluminum due to domestic production falling short of demand, a situation that’s unlikely to change soon despite President Trump’s efforts to support US production by imposing stiff tariffs on imports. Total US imports of aluminum for consumption rose by 18% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to a year ago, with the leading sources being Canada (54%), United Arab Emirates (11%), and Mexico (5%), according to the latest data from the US Geological Survey. Meanwhile, total exports of aluminum fell 11% year over year over the same period. The leading destinations for total aluminum exports during Q1 were Mexico (18%), Thailand (17%), Canada (16%), Malaysia (14%), and India (10%). The leading destinations for scrap exports were Thailand (26%), India (15%), and Malaysia (14%). Scrap accounted for 64% of all US aluminum exports in Q1.
• On March 12, President Trump moved to protect US metals producers by increasing US import tariffs on steel and aluminum. Trump restored effective no-exclusion tariffs of 25% on all imports of the metals and extended the duties to 289 steel and aluminum downstream product groups, from nuts and bolts to soda cans, Reuters reports. Canada and the European Union retaliated with the EU imposing tariffs on up to 26 billion euros of US exports, while Canada – the biggest foreign supplier of steel and aluminum to the US – plans more than $20 billion in retaliatory tariffs, per Reuters. US aluminum and steel producers welcomed the administration’s action, while downstream users of the metals said the tariffs will raise their costs. Aluminum and steel companies have long complained about foreign producers undercutting them on price and say tariffs have been effective at spurring more investment in the US.

• An alumina shortage and shipping disruptions that drove up the global price of aluminum last year, are expected to ease in 2025, according to Metal.com. (Aluminum metal is produced by refining alumina oxide from bauxite into alumina.) Per a Shanghai Metal Market (SMM) report, alumina supply growth is likely to outpace demand this year, creating a surplus that could reduce pressure on operating costs for aluminum producers. Based on SMM’s analysis, the global metallurgical-grade alumina (MGA) surplus is expected to reach approximately 2.6 million tons in 2025, a year-over-year increase of about 2 million tons. Primary aluminum may shift to a narrow surplus amid limited capacity growth and steady demand, per SMM. Regional markets are expected to vary, with the US remaining resilient while Europe faces supply risks.
• Producer prices for alumina and aluminum producers and processors rose 7.8% in May compared to a year ago after falling 1.2% in the previous May-versus-May annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. While industry producer prices have fallen from their peak in April 2022, they remain historically high. According to the latest US Geological Survey data, US primary aluminum production in March was 57,000 metric tons, with average daily production of 1,840 metric tons. Employment by alumina, aluminum, and other nonferrous metal producers grew 1.3% year over year in April, while the average industry wage for workers employed by primary metals manufacturers rose 2.2% YoY in May to $29.48 per hour, down $0.50 from its peak in March, BLS data show.