Animal Production NAICS 112

Apr 23, 2025 - Tariffs’ Mixed Impact

• While US pork producers see President Trump's tariffs as a negative for their industry, US beef producers are taking a rosier view, Drovers reported in March. That’s because the beef industry is not nearly as reliant on exports as the pork sector. US pork producers export well over a quarter of their product annually, with Mexico, Japan, China, and Canada their top export markets. As such, retaliatory tariffs from any of these top export customers are a huge concern. In March, China imposed 10% retaliatory tariffs on US pork, on top of the previous 25% duties. While China and the European Union have placed the same level of tariffs on US beef exports, the beef industry is not as export dependent. Indeed, tariffs on beef and cattle imports to the US have a net effect of tightening supplies, which drives up prices for US ranchers, according to Drovers.
• Poultry farmers and egg producers are on opposite sides of the debate over bird flu vaccinations, The Wall Street Journal reported in February. Egg companies are petitioning regulators to greenlight a vaccine that could be administered on farms to protect hens against the highly pathogenic avian influenza virus, which is decimating egg-laying flocks and sending egg prices soaring, per WSJ. Poultry processors say vaccinating chickens would have a devastating impact on US poultry exports because countries that import chicken products would cut off purchases of US poultry. The Trump administration is considering changes to bird flu policy, including the current practice of culling entire flocks once the virus is detected. The failure to control bird flu has caused egg producers to change their position on vaccination, which they opposed during the previous outbreak on the grounds that it would be expensive and difficult to vaccinate more than 300 million hens.

• With US cattle inventory at the lowest level in more than 70 years, farmers and ranchers are facing uncertainty about the future, Farm Bureau reports. The cattle shortage has fueled grocery store price hikes, wiped out billions in meat processor profits, and is driving mass layoffs at processors. Moreover, the possibility of new tariffs and immigration reform proposed by President-elect Donald Trump risks constraining supplies further still. High interest rates, farmer debt, bad weather and a shifting consumer preference toward cheaper chicken, has caused ranchers to cull heifers at too rapid a pace to rebuild the number of calves necessary to expand their herds. The USDA doesn’t expect a meaningful recovery to begin until 2027, as high borrowing costs and poor pastureland make it too risky to take on new cows — given the investment takes a few years to come to fruition, according to the Moscow-Pullman Daily News.
• Prices farmers received for livestock products far exceeded what they paid for them, helping to defray the cost of rising average wages for livestock workers. Prices received by farmers index for all livestock surged 37.1% in February compared to a year ago and were up 2.5% from January, according to the latest data from the USDA. Meanwhile, the prices paid by farmers index for all livestock products rose 6.2% over the same period. Average wages for livestock workers increased 1.9% year over year in the fourth quarter to $17.51 per hour, a penny shy of their high in Q1 2024, according to the latest data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. US beef prices are experiencing significant increases, driven by a combination of supply constraints and robust demand.