Art Dealers and Galleries NAICS 459920

May 20, 2025 - Higher Growth Projected

• The US art dealers and galleries industry is projected to grow at a 7.06% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, faster than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services, but the forecast noted that consumers so far have maintained spending on goods even as spending on travel and live entertainment has risen. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to recent data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), employment by art dealers was flat in March 2025, while wages for other miscellaneous retailers, which include art dealers, rose. Employment fell 0.6% in March 2025 year over year. In the last decade, employment declined 1.7% in the sector, compared to the nearly 14% growth in overall private employment. Average wages at other miscellaneous retailers rose 2.5% in March 2025 year over year, reaching $22.58 an hour for nonsupervisory employees. In addition, consumer spending levels increased 2.7% in January 2025 compared to a year ago and were up 0.1% from the previous month, according to personal consumption expenditures data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

• According to the 2024 Artprice Global Art Market Report, the global art auction market experienced a slowdown in 2024, generating $9.9 billion, representing a year-over-year decrease of 33.5%. The decline can be attributed to global tensions that caused wealthy art buyers to be cautious, leading to a drop in high-value sales. Despite the downturn, the global art market’s base is expanding. In 2024, 1.2 million artworks were offered in fine art auction sales worldwide, with 804,350 lots sold - a 5% increase that set a new historic record. The unsold rate was 33% in 2024, returning to its historical average level. In terms of global market share by value, the top markets were the US (39%), the EU (18.5%), and China (18.4%). The contemporary art category accounted for 17% of the worldwide art market.
• Consumers may adjust their art spending as consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, continues to fall in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices, according to two major indicators. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The Consumer Confidence Index declined by 7.9 points in April 2024, compared to the previous month. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index.