Assisted Living Facilities NAICS 623312

Jul 9, 2025 - One Big Beautiful Bill Includes Significant Medicaid Cuts

• President Trump has signed into law the $3.4 trillion One Big Beautiful Bill that is estimated by Healio to include $930 billion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years. CCRCs that provide skilled nursing facilities often rely on funding from Medicaid and Medicare. Nearly 12 million more people may be uninsured by 2034, with many losing coverage because of the Medicaid provisions in the bill, according to a US Congressional Budget Office analysis. For the first time in the Medicaid program’s nearly 60-year history, certain able-bodied adults aged 19 years to 64 years will be required to work, participate in job training, volunteer, or enroll in school at least 80 hours a month to maintain their Medicaid benefits. This will also be required for parents of children aged 14 years and older.
• Supply growth of senior living beds is decreasing, according to Lisa McCracken, head of research and analytics at the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. The decrease is occurring as the industry experiences the arrival of the “silver wave” of baby boomers. The oldest boomers are turning 79 in 2025 and the youngest are turning 61. "What’s interesting is, we did not predict that we would be in this spot of the demographic wave coupled by an environment where our ability to grow is really stymied by the economic environment,” McCracken said. Providers are still feeling some effects from the pandemic, “and we anticipate some of that’s still going to be with us for a period of time,” she added.

• The threat of capital gains taxes is leading older homeowners to keep their homes rather consider a move to a senior living community, according to a report from CareLogic. Homeowners can exclude housing capital gains for up to $500,000 — or $250,000 for single households — from the sale of their homes thanks to the Taxpayer Relief Act, but increasing home prices have caused almost 8% of US homes sold in 2023 to exceed that limit, leaving homeowners liable for capital gains beyond the limits.
• Assisted living industry employment increased slightly and average wages for nonsupervisory employees decreased slightly during the first five months of 2025, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nursing and residential care industry revenue increased 8.7% year over year and 4.5% quarter over quarter during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the US Census Bureau. Assisted living facilities sales are forecast to increase at a 4.73% compounded annual rate from 2025 to 2029, faster than the growth of the overall economy, according to Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc.