Assisted Living Facilities NAICS 623312

Sep 10, 2025 - Senior Housing Shortage Looms

• More than 564,000 new senior living units will be needed by 2030, but only about 191,000 are expected to be added at current rates, according to McKnight's Senior Living. Older adults are moving into senior housing at a rapid pace, and that trend will continue given the wave of baby boomers and many more ‘solo agers’ who don’t have a caregiver to rely on as a safety net,” according to Lisa McCracken, head of research and analytics for the National Investment Center for Seniors Housing & Care. “The industry needs to ramp up development for supply to catch up with demand, but we don’t foresee any meaningful movement here in 2025 given current market conditions.” The pace of new senior-housing units and units under development was slower than historical norms in the first quarter of 2025, according to Market Watch.
• President Trump has signed into law the $3.4 trillion One Big Beautiful Bill that is estimated by Healio to include $930 billion in Medicaid cuts over 10 years. CCRCs that provide skilled nursing facilities often rely on funding from Medicaid and Medicare. Nearly 12 million more people may be uninsured by 2034, with many losing coverage because of the Medicaid provisions in the bill, according to a US Congressional Budget Office analysis. For the first time in the Medicaid program’s nearly 60-year history, certain able-bodied adults aged 19 years to 64 years will be required to work, participate in job training, volunteer, or enroll in school at least 80 hours a month to maintain their Medicaid benefits. This will also be required for parents of children aged 14 years and older.

• The threat of capital gains taxes is leading older homeowners to keep their homes rather consider a move to a senior living community, according to a report from CareLogic. Homeowners can exclude housing capital gains for up to $500,000 — or $250,000 for single households — from the sale of their homes thanks to the Taxpayer Relief Act, but increasing home prices have caused almost 8% of US homes sold in 2023 to exceed that limit, leaving homeowners liable for capital gains beyond the limits.
• Assisted living industry employment increased slightly and average wages for nonsupervisory employees decreased slightly during the first five months of 2025, according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. Nursing and residential care industry revenue increased 8.7% year over year and 4.5% quarter over quarter during the fourth quarter of 2024, according to the US Census Bureau. Assisted living facilities sales are forecast to increase at a 4.73% compounded annual rate from 2025 to 2029, faster than the growth of the overall economy, according to Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc.