Auto Rental & Leasing NAICS 532111, 532112

May 21, 2025 - Summer Travel Outlook Dims

• Some travel industry insiders and observers expect summer travel demand to soften amid mounting uncertainties, according to The New York Times. Hotel chains, including Hilton, Hyatt, and Marriott, have reduced their revenue outlooks amid slowing growth. Airbnb and Expedia have also lowered their growth expectations for the coming months. Industry watchers suggest that U.S. policies on immigration and trade may make the US a less attractive destination for international travelers. International arrivals to the US are forecast to drop by 9.4% in 2025, according to research company Tourism Economics. The World Travel and Tourism Council expects 2025 revenue from international travel to the US to drop to $169 billion compared to $181 billion in 2024. Economic uncertainties may also prompt US consumers to pull back on domestic travel. Travel activity is a leading demand driver for car rental services.
• Tariffs, waning consumer and business confidence, and signs of weaker travel demand are clouding the outlook for the rental car industry, according to Auto Rental News. At the International Car Rental Show in Las Vegas in mid-April, Northcoast Research’s industry analyst John Healy provided an outlook for fleets, rental rates and pricing, and the state of the used car market. TSA screenings at airports so far in 2025 are above pre-pandemic levels but are flat compared to the same period in 2024, suggesting that consumers and business travelers may be pulling back. Healy noted that recent stock market volatility may also put downward pressure on travel demand. Car rental rates and pricing at the top 25 US airports, a proxy for the wider industry, were down in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. Pricing and rates moving lower could suggest that rental fleets could be oversized. Healy suggested that rental firms obtain more visibility into the supply chains of automotive OEMs to assess the impact tariffs might have on vehicle pricing.

• Reduced new-vehicle affordability could put downward pressure on demand for auto leasing. New-vehicle affordability in April fell to the lowest level so far in 2025, reversing an improvement trend, according to the Cox Automotive/Moody’s Analytics Vehicle Affordability Index. In April, the median number of weeks of income necessary to buy a new vehicle rose to 37.3 weeks compared to a downwardly revised 36.3 weeks in March. However, April’s affordability index marked an improvement compared to the 39.1 weeks of income required to purchase a new vehicle in April 2024.
• In February, several trade associations and companies formed the American Vehicle Owners Alliance (AVOA) to advocate for owners – individuals and businesses – to control their vehicles’ data. Modern vehicles generate, store, and transmit troves of data, and some manufacturers limit data access and control, or charge fees for it. The executive director of the American Car Rental Association (ACRA) said, “Rental car operators rely on this data to enhance the customer experience and improve vehicle safety. Giving vehicle owners — including rental car companies — full access to their own data is essential for a competitive and consumer-friendly rental market.” Members of the AVOA include the ACRA, Hertz, the National Consumer League, the National Association of Fleet Operators, Enterprise Mobility, the Truck Renting and Leasing Association, Safelite, and The American Property Casualty Insurance Association. The AVOA aims to work with Congress and the Trump administration to ensure owners maintain control over vehicle data.