Automobile Manufacturers NAICS 336110

Jun 15, 2026 - Cox Automotive Predicts a Slight Decline in 2026 New Auto Sales

• Cox Automotive forecasts US new vehicle sales will reach 15.8 million units in 2026, a 2.4% decline from 2025, reflecting a slower but still healthy auto market after stronger-than-expected performance last year. The outlook is shaped by a fragmented economy: higher-income consumers should benefit from wealth gains, tax relief, and lower interest rates, while lower-income households continue to face affordability challenges. Other factors influencing the market include weak job growth, inflation uncertainty, shifting government policies, changes to EV incentives, and the growing impact of AI on productivity and retail operations. Cox projects retail new vehicle sales will fall 1.5%, fleet sales 6.1%, and used-vehicle sales slightly. Leasing rates are expected to decline, while wholesale used vehicle values should rise modestly. Overall, Cox expects modest declines across most automotive sales metrics but sees supportive factors, including lower rates and tax refunds, helping demand in early 2026.
• Car affordability has become a major drag on US auto sales in 2026, with 52% of dealers citing the economy as a barrier to sales in Q1 2026 - up from 45% a year prior. A Washington Post/ABC News poll found 74% of Americans consider buying a new car unaffordable, unsurprising given the average new car price was $49,191 in January 2026. Monthly payments are also at record highs, with Edmunds reporting the average financed new car payment reaching $772 in Q4 2025 and one in five buyers now committing to $1,000 or more per month, contributing to Cox's projection that February 2026 vehicle sales will fall 3.4% year-over-year. Some relief may be on the horizon through lower interest rates and more off-lease used vehicles entering the market, though luxury brands like Porsche (averaging $128,761) continue pushing overall price averages upward.

• The US auto industry is entering a cautious 2026 with S&P Global Mobility projecting light‑vehicle sales to drop about 2.5% to roughly 15.9 million units. Auto production is also expected to ease slightly (down about 0.8%) as industry giants adjust to weaker demand and a shift in model preferences. EV growth, a key driver of expansion in recent years, is slowing and pushing manufacturers to lean more on hybrids and gas-powered cars. High prices and economic uncertainty are keeping buyers on the sidelines, while trade pressures and supply disruptions are hampering investment and production. Rather than expanding aggressively, US auto manufacturers are focusing on flexibility - balancing powertrain options, managing inventory, and controlling costs. Analysts see 2026 as a year of stabilization: steady production, careful planning, and efficient execution are likely to define the domestic car market looking to put an end to the chaos of 2025.
• Major US and global automakers - including General Motors, Ford, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and Stellantis - warned lawmakers that expanding Chinese auto and battery producers pose a “clear and present threat” to the US auto industry. They collectively urged restrictions on Chinese plants and maintaining bans on certain technology imports. Tariffs on Chinese vehicles and components have also added supply-chain pressures, raising costs for US manufacturers and suppliers. For the auto parts industry, this intensifying competition and political pressure could accelerate supply‑chain shifts. Chinese vehicles are increasingly competitive globally, driven by subsidies and integrated supply networks that include parts and batteries. American suppliers may face reduced demand if Chinese EVs and vehicles enter US markets at lower costs, potentially squeezing margins for domestic parts makers. Automakers are pushing hard to “de-risk” reliance on Chinese components, encouraging suppliers to relocate production, reshuffling supply chains, raising short-term costs, and prompting more regional sourcing strategies.