Basic Chemical Manufacturers NAICS 3251

Jul 20, 2025 - Mixed Outlook for Chemicals

• In a June webinar hosted by Chemical Processing, the American Chemistry Council’s (ACC) Chief Economist Martha Gilchrist Moore noted that the US chemical industry – and broader US and global economies – are in a state of confusion. With the US economy cooling amid ongoing trade uncertainty, demand for basic and specialty chemicals is mixed. Basic chemical volumes are projected to decline 0.4% in 2025 before recovering slightly to 0.2% growth in 2026, according to the ACC’s Situation & Outlook report for June 2025, with basic chemicals facing declines in inorganics and synthetic materials, with slight organic chemical improvements. Meanwhile, demand for specialty chemicals – end users of basic chemicals – is expected to remain essentially flat this year and next. With the US chemical industry exporting 25% of its output, trade disputes and the threat of reciprocal tariffs are concerns for manufacturers.
• If realized, early predictions for a dynamic 2025 Atlantic hurricane season could spell trouble for the petrochemical industry and the basic chemical manufacturers that rely on it for feedstocks, according to AccuWeather. In May, AccuWeather meteorologists predicted 13 to 18 storms, of which 7 to 10 will be hurricanes. Water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean are already well above historical averages, and will stay warm throughout most of the year, priming storms for explosive development. With facilities concentrated along the Gulf Coast in Texas and Louisiana, basic chemical manufacturers are especially vulnerable to tropical storms and hurricanes, which can disrupt operations. Hurricane experts at Colorado State University are predicting a 70% storm chance and 44% hurricane chance this year for Texas, and 74% storm chance and 46% hurricane chance for Louisiana.

• Chemical manufacturers and refiners could see the permitting process for new chemicals accelerate under action taken by the EPA to repeal a Biden-era amendment to the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), Chemical Processing reports. As part of the Trump administration’s sweeping deregulation efforts, the EPA under its new administrator Lee Zeldin has announced plans to reconsider the regulation governing the review of chemicals already in commerce. Also, an amendment to the TSCA, which placed stricter requirements on the new chemicals review process, has come under fire by the industry and republican lawmakers who say places unnecessary burdens on chemical manufacturers and refiners by slowing the permitting process and inhibiting the availability of chemicals. The EPA’s action to streamline chemical reviews came just days after the agency issued new guidance directing that any spending exceeding $50,000 requires approval from the Elon Musk-led Department of Government Efficiency.
• Producer prices for basic chemical manufacturers rose 1.2% in May compared to a year ago, after falling 8.8% in the previous May-versus-May annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Producer prices, which peaked in mid-2022, are beginning to recover from low demand as the industry destocked from record high inventory levels. Employment by the industry grew 1.6% year over year in April, while the average wage at basic chemical manufacturers rose 6.5% over the same period to $40.49 per hour, down $0.29 from its record high last August, BLS data show.