Boat Dealers NAICS 441222

May 16, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• Sales for the US boat dealers industry are projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.19% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• New powerboat retail unit sales declined by 7.4% in the 12-month period ending in February 2025 year over year, influenced by an ongoing retail softness due to economic concerns, according to the Monthly Recreational Boating Industry Data Summary from the National Marine Manufacturers Association (NMMA) in Boating Industry. New retail unit sales for the first two months of the year fell 4.8% compared to the same period in 2024. Sales of freshwater fishing boats fared better than other segments, up 6.6% in the first two months of 2025 compared to the same period last year. Personal watercraft sales were nearly flat year over year during the period, with lower cost, wider appeal categories demonstrating resilience in the cautious environment. The wholesale shipments fell 13% in February 2025 year over year, pointing to an ongoing inventory recalibration strategy.

• Boat shoppers may adjust their spending plans as consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, continues to fall in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices, according to two major indicators. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.” The Consumer Confidence Index declined by 7.9 points in April 2024, compared to the previous month. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index.
• The number of new boaters who sold their boat within four years rose slightly in 2024, and anecdotal evidence shows consumer pressures are a factor in leaving the sport, according to a report in Trade Only Today. Dealers may see less traffic if there is a decline in the number of active boaters. According to data from Info-Link Technologies for Soundings Trade Only, the share of new-boat buyers who sold their boat after four years was about 24% in 2024, higher than the industry average of 20%. A combination of factors may be weighing on consumers, including high prices from inflation causing a reduction in discretionary spending, an increased feeling of anxiety, and a sense of being time-crunched that prevents people from taking their boats out. Industry experts also indicated that boat usage overall also seems to be falling. According to Matt Gruhn, president of the Marine Retailers Association of the Americas, “There appears to be a decline in boat usage. The dealers are talking about it, that throughout all the ups and downs of our industry, boat usage has largely stayed the same. They have this anecdotal evidence that the boat ramps aren’t as busy. The waterways aren’t as busy. There’s no data, but it seems like there’s some kind of a decline.”