Caterers NAICS 722320

May 6, 2025 - Tariffs Would Increase Caterers’ Costs

• Tariffs on imports are poised to have a negative impact on the catering industry, Catersource reported in May. While caterers themselves generally do not import products directly neither are they end users. As such, a 25% tariff will typically raise the prices caterers pay for imports, not by the full 25% but by somewhat less, assuming that importers absorb some of the tariff-based increase. However, since caterers are value-adding intermediate consumers of imports, these tariffs will likely impose substantial cost increases in the industry, according to Catersource. Mexico and Canada, both targets of Trump administration tariffs, are major suppliers of perishable foods to the US, including much seasonal produce (Mexico) and seafood and pork (Canada). A 15% increase in prices of these products based on a 25% tariff would make a sizable impact, possibly as much as 2–3% food cost on food revenue, per Catersource.
• Return-to-office mandates in 2025 would provide a boost to corporate catering companies that saw business dry up as workers stayed at home. Now with big employers including Amazon, AT&T, and Starbucks announcing requirements for employees to return to office full-time this year and President-elect Trump wanting federal workers back in the office five days a week, will 2025 be the year workers return en masse to their offices? Probably not, according to human resources executives from PwC, Canva, Magnit, and EY, who all told Fortune magazine in December that they expect hybrid schedules to continue to be the norm this year. The strong preference among workers for the flexibility and cost-saving at-home work provides means companies that enable a hybrid approach will have a competitive advantage attracting top talent.

• The latest USDA food price inflation forecast for 2025 provides a mixed picture for consumers and food service providers, with grocery prices expected to tick up while restaurant prices fall. For 2025, grocery prices are projected to rise 1.6%, up from 1.2% in 2024, while restaurant prices are forecast to increase 3.4%, down from 4.1% this year. Beef prices are expected to rise 5.5% this year and 2.2% in 2025. Pork is forecast to increase 1.7% and 2.2% in 2024 and 2025, respectively. Egg prices continue to show volatility, with 2024 costs projected to rise 8.8%. The 2025 egg price increase was recently revised to 10.5%, a sharp jump from the 4.7% projected in September. The USDA noted that bird fly outbreaks have significantly reduced the US egg-layer flock, contributing to the surge in price.
• Employment by caterers grew 11.5% in January compared to a year ago, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. While employment by catering companies fell from its peak in October, it remains historically high and has long exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Average wages at caterers rose 4% over the same period to $23.32 per hour, down from their peak in December, BLS data show. Sales for the US caterers industry are forecast to grow at a 4.5% compounded annual rate from 2025 to 2029, faster than the growth of the overall economy, according to a new forecast by the Interindustry Economic Research Fund.