Commercial and Retail Bakeries NAICS 311811, 311812

Jan 20, 2026 - 2026 Trends

• Commercial bakeries face rapidly shifting consumer expectations and operational pressures, pushing them toward more differentiated products and smarter production models this year, writes restaurant and bakery supplier Plastic Container City. Texture mash‑ups have become a major sales driver, requiring bakeries to rethink formulations and invest in packaging that preserves delicate contrasts during distribution. Sourdough is expanding beyond bread, offering longer shelf life, premium pricing, and versatility across categories. Frozen bakery continues to surge as operators seek consistency, reduced early‑morning labor, and predictable costs. Functional baking is accelerating, with high‑fiber and high‑protein items gaining traction without compromising taste. Plant‑based products have moved mainstream, especially in cookies, brownies, and quick breads. Premiumization remains a strong margin lever, while single‑serve formats capture all‑day snacking demand and reduce waste. Finally, automation and digital tools have become essential, helping bakeries maintain quality and output despite chronic labor shortages and rising operational complexity.
• A roundtable discussion among leaders in the commercial bakery industry, reported in Commercial Baking in January, focused on continued pressure for bakeries and pathways to operational gains in the new year. Participants noted that accelerating change, including automation, new food‑safety rules, and labor shortages, is pushing bakeries toward deeper collaboration across associations and suppliers. For bakeries, this means greater access to shared training programs, data‑driven workforce development, and more coordinated advocacy on regulatory issues. Workforce capability will remain a central constraint in 2026 with bakeries in need of both skilled bakers and technically trained engineers to operate and maintain increasingly complex equipment. At the same time, regulatory and ingredient pressures are creating demand for more functional, compliant formulations without driving up costs, opening innovation opportunities for ingredient suppliers and R&D teams. Strengthening relationships with FDA, USDA, and policymakers, along with easing tariff uncertainty, should improve capital‑spending predictability.

• Consistent production of quality baked goods requires the precise balance of major and micro ingredients, with even small errors, especially with concentrated inputs, leading to waste, inconsistent texture, or even food safety issues, reports BakingBusiness.com. Unfortunately, with fewer skilled bakers around today to make on‑the‑fly adjustments, the risk of batch‑to‑batch variation is rising. Pre‑formulated mixes and blends can solve this problem by providing pre‑scaled, application‑specific ingredient systems that ensure accuracy every time. Many are designed to be added as complete bags directly into the mixer, thereby reducing handling steps and minimizing human error. Consistency cuts costs tied to rework and ingredient waste while simplifying inventory management. By standardizing precision, mixes and blends also give bakeries the confidence to expand into new or more complex product categories, such as artisan or specialty items, without requiring additional technical expertise.
• Producer prices for retail bakeries rose 4.8% in September compared to a year ago, after posting a flat previous September-versus-September annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Industry producer prices at retail bakeries were at a record high in September amid rising costs for ingredients, labor, and other inputs. Employment by bread and bakery product manufacturers dipped 0.5% year over year in August, while the average industry wage rose 4% over the same period to a new high of $23.26 per hour, BLS data show.