Commercial and Retail Bakeries NAICS 311811, 311812

Oct 20, 2025 - Winter Wheat Planting On Track

• As of mid-October, the planting of winter wheat for harvest in 2026 was proceeding at a near-normal pace despite some rain delays, reported the CEO of Kansas Wheat Justin Gilpin. In its September 29th weekly Crop Report (the last published before the government shutdown) the USDA said winter wheat was 34% planted across the principal US production states for hard and soft classes, which compared with 20% the previous week and 36% as the five-year average. A year ago, Kansas farmers had planted 68% of their prospective winter wheat acreage by Oct. 13, which was slightly ahead of the preceding five-year average. Beyond the minor rain setbacks, planting season overall has been smooth, according to Gilpin. Winter wheat (planted in the fall and harvested in early summer) makes up the majority of US wheat production and is a primary input for bakers.
• Bread provides important, dependable nutrition that millions of families rely on daily, Eric Dell, president and CEO of the American Bakers Association (ABA) wrote in an essay marking World Break Day in October. According to a Circana Consumer Household Panel, bread is found in 95% of American households, where it’s used in more than half of all lunches and nearly half of all dinners. It contains essential nutrients like fiber, B vitamins, magnesium and iron that have made long-lasting contributions to improving the health of Americans, including preventing spinal birth defects in infants, according to a Journal of Neurosurgery study. Bread also supports farmers. US commercial bakers invested $14.8 billion in American-grown ingredients, including wheat, corn, sugar, and eggs in 2023, with more than 85% of core baking ingredients sourced domestically and one-third of all flour milled in the US going to commercial bakeries, according to ABA.

• Tariffs on imports from the US’s top three trading partners are expected to cost the baking industry about $454 million this year, according to the American Bakers Association (ABA). This figure includes $244 million due to a 25% tariff on imported ingredients such as flour blends and sweeteners from Canada, $170 million due to tariffs on goods imported from Mexico, and $40 million from a 10% tariffs on Chinese goods, according to ABA. Also, a 125% tariff levied on certain imports from China in April to curb US reliance on foreign manufacturing is raising the cost of packaging and baking equipment. In July, President Trump threatened to raise the tariff on goods from Canada to 35%, with an exemption for goods that comply with the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement applying for now, according to the White House.
• Producer prices for bakery products rose 2.5% in August compared to a year ago, after rising 1.6% in the previous August-versus-August annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Industry producer prices for both commercial and retail bakeries are near all-time highs amid rising costs for ingredients, labor, and other inputs. Employment by bread and bakery product manufacturers remained flat year over year in July, while the average industry wage rose 3% over the same period to a new high of $23.13 per hour, BLS data show.