Commercial Banks NAICS 522110

Mar 26, 2026 - Proposed Bank Capital Rule Changes Would Favor Private Credit Loans

• Proposed changes to US bank capital rules could deepen the financial ties between banks and private credit firms. Currently, banks can treat loans made to private lenders as lower-risk than direct loans to businesses, making it more profitable to lend to a private credit fund than to a company directly. Harvard Business School estimated that a direct loan to a mid-sized company might generate a 13% return on equity for a bank, compared to 24% for a private credit fund making a loan. The proposals would make this favorable treatment even stronger by lowering the minimum risk weighting from 20% to 15%. Rather than pushing banks to compete more directly with private lenders, the rule changes could reinforce their interdependence. According to the Federal Reserve, loans to non-bank financial institutions already make up about 14% of total US bank lending, and that share could grow further if the proposals pass.
• The nation’s six largest banks delivered several records in 2025, with commercial banking benefiting from a surge in corporate borrowing and deal-related lending. Collectively, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, and Morgan Stanley generated about $593 billion in revenue (up 6%) and $157 billion in profits (up 8%). Lending tied to M&As and large capital investments rebounded sharply as 2025 produced the second-highest global M&A volume on record, according to London Stock Exchange data. Industry-wide debt underwriting surpassed its 2020 peak, while loans used to finance acquisitions reached new highs, Dealogic data shows. Banks also expanded balance-sheet lending to hedge funds, private-equity firms, and corporate clients. Executives expect further loan growth in 2026 but warned that geopolitical tensions, interest-rate uncertainty, and a slowing labor market could temper momentum.

• Regional US banks are ramping up mergers and acquisitions to strengthen deposit bases and withstand mounting competition from national lenders. After a period of high interest rates and deposit outflows, many mid-sized banks are focusing on acquiring institutions with stable, low-cost retail deposits rather than relying on more volatile commercial funds. Recent deals, including Fifth Third Bancorp’s $10.9 billion offer for Comerica and PNC Financial Services’ $4.1 billion purchase of FirstBank Holding, highlight a broader effort to improve funding stability and diversify geographically. Analysts say these mergers are less about sheer scale and more about managing risk, expanding into growing markets, and building safeguards against future economic shocks. With large banks continuing to attract consumer deposits and fintech competitors encroaching on lending, regional lenders are consolidating to stay competitive, streamline operations, and maintain profitability in a tougher regulatory and credit environment.
• National banks boosted their share of the auto loan market, writing about 31% of all new vehicle loans in the first half of 2025, according to Experian. It was a 5% year-over-year increase for new cars and a 1% increase for used cars (banks wrote 28% of used vehicle loans in that period). Banks are on pace to write 29% of all US auto loans by the end of the year. Earnings reports of three large banks all show double-digit value growth in auto loans: JPMorgan Chase had a 12% increase in auto loans for H1 2025 ($22 billion); Capital One rose 26% ($20 billion); and Wells Fargo jumped 47% ($11.5 billion). Industry experts attribute the shift to falling interest rates allowing banks to cheaply borrow money to originate auto loans, which they can then offer at lower rates to consumers in an effort to be more competitive.