Commercial Brokers & Property Managers NAICS 531210

Feb 16, 2026 - Wall Street's AI Jitters Shock Brokerage Stocks

• Commercial real estate brokerages are facing rising uncertainty as investors question whether advances in AI could eventually erode the labor-intensive services that drive their revenue, even as firms report improving fundamentals, according to Bisnow. In mid-February, a sharp stock sell-off hit CBRE, JLL, Cushman & Wakefield, Colliers, and Newmark, reflecting fears that automation may reshape advisory work, research functions, and parts of the transaction process. Brokerages have invested heavily in AI tools, aiming to boost productivity, streamline underwriting, and reduce research costs. Executives argue that relationships, market expertise, and proprietary data will keep brokers central to deals. Still, investors are increasingly focused on whether efficiency gains could compress headcount and commission-based revenue. The moment underscores a broader debate about how quickly AI may alter brokerage workflows, staffing models, and long-term profitability.
• US office leasing reached a post-pandemic high in Q4 2025 as return-to-office momentum, federal attendance shifts, and large corporate commitments boosted activity, according to a JLL report and Facilities Dive. About 97% of Fortune 100 employees now follow hybrid or in-office requirements, helping large transactions rise about 15% year over year. Total annual leasing volume rose 5.2% to 207 million square feet. Office construction has fallen 20% below historic lows, helping to tighten supply somewhat, although vacancies remain high at 22.2%. New York, the San Francisco Peninsula, Silicon Valley, and Phoenix led occupancy gains year over year in the fourth quarter. Premium rents are rising in high-end buildings as overall asking rents stagnate. JLL expects 2026 momentum to remain positive amid limited downsizing and record-low development.

• Commercial real estate lending strengthened in Q4 2025 as higher origination volumes, larger average loans, and improved loan-to-value ratios lifted activity, according to CBRE. The Lending Momentum Index rose 67% year over year to 1.2, driven by a 26% jump in permanent loan financing and the strongest monthly volume since 2021. Alternative lenders accounted for 40% of non-agency closings, while banks increased originations by 73% quarter over quarter. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) volume surged, with 2025 issuance reaching its highest level since 2007. Underwriting metrics improved as loan constants and interest rates fell, debt service coverage ratios edged up, and loan-to-value ratios increased modestly.
• Fitch Ratings’ US CMBS delinquency rate fell by five basis points to 3.32% in January 2026 from 3.37% in December. The January decline was driven by a rise in new issuance, which offset new delinquencies outpacing resolution volume. Commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) are fixed-income investment products backed by mortgages on commercial properties rather than residential real estate. The delinquency rate is the percentage of commercial real estate loans that were 30 or more days past due or in foreclosure. A rising delinquency rate indicates that an increasing number of commercial property owners cannot pay their mortgages. Current and prior-month delinquency rates for January and December were: Office: 8.32% (from 8.59% in December); Retail: 3.77% (from 3.76%); Hotel: 3.36% (from 3.81%); Multifamily: 1.31% (from 1.09%); Industrial: 0.71% (from 0.64%); Mixed Use: 5.13% (from 5.18%); Self-storage: 0.06% (from 0.04%); and Other: 1.37% (from 1.68%).