Commercial Equipment Rental and Leasing NAICS 5324

Feb 6, 2026 - Nonresidential Building Spending to Remain Sluggish Through 2027

• Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 and 2027, according to the American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast released in January. Total spending for nonresidential building construction is expected to rise just 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. For the next two years, commercial facility growth will be led by data centers, with spending rising 26.3% in 2026 and 16.5% in 2027. However, offices are expected to see a sharp decline in spending over the forecast period while warehouse and retail will see weak growth this year and modest gains in 2027. Manufacturing construction spending will fall 3.9% in 2026 and drop 2.8% next year. Spending on institutional projects will grow 2.7% this year and 2.8% in 2027, led by steady growth in the health sector, but educational, and amusement and recreation project spending will remain relatively flat.
• The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s (ELFA) Monthly CapEx Finance Index (CFI) showed new business volume was valued at $10.6 billion in December 2025, up 3.1% from the month before. On a year-over-year basis, new business volumes increased 5.9% in December. Full-year new business volume declined 0.5% in 2025 compared to 2024. ELFA CEO and President Leigh Lytle said, "December confirmed that 2025 was a year for the record books, with new business volumes closing the year on a tear. The data show that the equipment finance industry has not only weathered but thrived amid historic uncertainty. While we expect some volatility in 2026, all signs point to another year of strong demand and stable financial conditions—especially as markets anticipate additional rate cuts later this year."

• US manufacturing activity expanded in January 2026 for the first time in 12 months, according to the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). The ISM’s Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) in January rose to 52.6% from a reading of 47.9% in December. A reading above 50% indicates manufacturing expansion. January's New Orders Index decreased by 9.7 percentage points to 57.1%. The January Production Index rose 5.2 percentage points to 55.9%. Despite the return to PMI growth in January, several individual respondents to the ISM survey suggested that demand in the factory sector is being affected by economic uncertainty caused by the unpredictable nature of US tariff policy. Manufacturing activity is a demand driver for commercial equipment rental and leasing.
• Construction firms that work on civil infrastructure projects are holding steady as they manage uncertainties, including waning backlog growth and stagnant margins, according to FMI’s fourth-quarter Civil Infrastructure Construction Index (CICI) survey. The CICI reading for the third quarter was 50.6 compared to 50.8 in Q3 2025 – on a 100-point scale. Any CICI reading above 50 indicates that more civil infrastructure contractors see conditions as good than poor. About half of civil infrastructure contractors reported that their backlogs in Q4 met or exceeded their targets. However, most noted that public projects are making up a growing share of overall backlogs, as private-sector projects face greater uncertainty. Contractors expect backlog growth to slow over the next few quarters as more firms vie for a narrower set of public projects. Contractor margins remained steady but flat in Q4 2025 as bid competition and rising cost pressures eroded pricing power.