Commercial Equipment Rental and Leasing NAICS 5324

Mar 6, 2026 - Equipment Rental Revenue to Post Slower Growth in 2026

• US equipment rental revenue, which includes the construction/industrial and general tool market segments, is expected to rise in 2026, but at a slower pace, according to a recent forecast by the American Rental Association (ARA) and data partner S&P Global. After posting revenue of $80.6 billion in 2025, equipment rental revenue is expected to increase by 2.8% in 2026 and reach $82.9 billion. Demand for construction and industrial equipment (CIE) is forecast to rise 1.6% in 2026, and general tool equipment investment is expected to rise by 4.1%. However, geopolitical and financial challenges are weighing on business and consumer confidence, which is slowing equipment rental demand. Residential construction is expected to drop 0.6% in 2026, while nonresidential construction will rise only 0.6%. US manufacturing activity is forecast to remain flat, rising just 0.3% in 2026.
• The total value of nonresidential construction put in place declined 0.6% in December 2025 compared to the prior month, according to the US Census Bureau. Private spending fell 0.7% in December, while public spending fell 0.4%. Speaking of December's spending results, Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu said, "This decline was concentrated in the manufacturing segment, which is now down nearly 16% from the August 2024 all-time high. Given trade policy uncertainty and the waning effects of the CHIPS Act, manufacturing-related spending will likely continue to decline over the next several quarters. While manufacturing is the most significant driver of nonresidential weakness, it’s far from the only one. Eight of the 11 private nonresidential subsegments contracted in December, and total private nonresidential spending is now down 1.8% year over year."

• The Equipment Leasing and Finance Association’s (ELFA) Monthly CapEx Finance Index (CFI) showed new business volume reached a record value of $11.6 billion in January 2026, up 7.8% from the month before. On a year-over-year basis, new business volumes increased 30.1% in January. ELFA CEO and President Leigh Lytle said, "Just as we expected, the equipment finance industry had a strong start to 2026. New activity surged to its highest monthly dollar amount ever, with much of the gain coming from equipment producers. The loss rate retreated after rising at the end of last year, and the average delinquency rate remained stable. It’s still early, but I’m optimistic that continued AI investment will translate into another year of strong growth in new financing activity, even if the Fed decides to put rate cuts on ice for the foreseeable future."
• Prices rose to their highest level since June 2022 as manufacturers faced tariff and inflation pressures, and the latest ISM report showed a February PMI of 52.4%, signaling continued, though slower, expansion. New orders and backlogs grew across major sectors, and customers’ inventories remained too low, which could support additional production. For the commercial equipment rental and leasing industry, rising steel and aluminum costs are likely to push up acquisition and maintenance expenses, tightening margins for fleets that rely on new machinery and vehicles. Executives reported improved demand sentiment, but hiring remains cautious amid persistent tariff uncertainty. The Supreme Court’s ruling against the administration’s tariff authority, along with geopolitical risks that have driven oil prices higher, may create more volatility. Analysts expect manufacturers to remain careful in planning, which could influence rental companies’ capital spending and fleet replacement decisions.