Death Care Services NAICS 8122

May 20, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• The US death care services industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.49% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy‘s anticipated growth. The report noted that consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses, drives the other services sector. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the various other services sector industries. Factors that may limit consumer spending are higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer to an extent if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a recent report in the New York Times, funeral directors have been forced to innovate in light of higher cremation rates and increased costs of gasoline, embalming chemicals, and staffing. About half of the industry’s revenue comes from funeral planning services and the sale of caskets and other items; when people choose cremation, funeral costs are about a third less. Some funeral directors are educating families about incorporating traditional elements, such as a viewing or a service, even when they opt for cremation. Some funeral homes have invested in multi-functional event facilities that can host other events, including weddings and proms. Others are changing their business models to incorporate alternative arrangements such as human composting or green burials.

• The death care industry will want to monitor supply chains, service pricing, and consumer sensitivity during the rollout of new Trump administration tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada. According to Funeral Service Insider, tariffs may impact the prices for caskets imported by affected countries, meaning higher costs for consumers and tighter margins for funeral services firms. Many companies shifted their suppliers to Canada and Mexico during the Covid-19 pandemic to reduce supply chain problems during the pandemic, which makes them vulnerable to tariff effects. Funeral homes may also see higher prices for certain styles of urns, like cloisonne urns, that are typically imported. Funeral homes may consider increasing service fees or modifying pricing to protect profits. Some funeral homes may price their caskets closer to wholesale to remain competitive as costs climb. According to Bloomberg, new Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum are also expected to impact burial caskets.
• Death care services, included in the “Other Services” category, is one of the eight industries reporting employment growth in April’s Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Other Services industry also reported slower deliveries, a decrease in inventories, a decrease in order backlogs, and higher prices paid for materials and services. Industries reporting growth during the period included Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Mining; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Retail Trade; Art, Entertainment, and Recreation; Health Care & Social Assistance; Transportation & Warehousing; Information; Educational Services; and Utilities. The six services industries reporting contraction during the period were Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; Finance & Insurance; Management of Companies & Support Services; Public Administration; and Construction. Overall, economic activity in the services sector expanded in April, with the Services PMI registering 51.6%.