Distilleries NAICS 312140

Dec 29, 2025 - Americans Are Drinking Less, But Not By Much

• New data from drinks data provider IWSR show that while Americans say they are drinking less, actual consumption has only slightly declined, with weekly averages hovering around 10 to 12 drinks per adult since the 1970s. For distilleries, this challenges the narrative of a dramatic long‑term decline in drinking and suggests that recent volume softness may be driven more by economic pressures than a structural shift away from spirits. That distinction matters: cyclical downturns typically require pricing, packaging, and promotional adjustments, while structural declines would demand deeper portfolio or strategy changes. However, the modest drop in consumption, combined with younger consumers’ lower drinking rates and growing health‑conscious behavior, still signals emerging headwinds for future demand growth. Distilleries may face slower volume expansion, greater competition for share, and the need to invest more in premiumization, low‑ABV offerings, and brand differentiation.
• New depletion trend data for wine and spirits signals a bottoming out of downward trends in key categories, according to the latest SipSource quarterly forecast. The 2025 outlook is for negative growth rates to stabilize by yearend, signaling a shift away from the steep and growing decline levels seen between 2022 and 2024. In total, SipSource projects core spirits (including vodka, whiskey, rum, and gin) to bottom out at a negative 4.56% growth rate by the end of 2025 before rebounding slightly to decline at a negative rate of about 4.1% by Q2 2026. The steep downward trend and negative growth rates seen for rum, US whiskey, vodka, and brandy/cognac are expected to largely flatten by the first half of 2026, albeit in negative territory, per the SipSource report.

• After a record-breaking year for exports, ongoing trade disputes between the US and its trading partners threaten to derail growth for the US spirits industry, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS). US spirits exports hit a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven by a 39% increase in exports to the European Union, the largest market for US spirits, which has zero tariffs on spirits imports. Exports to the rest of the world fell nearly 10%, reflecting a softening of the global market for spirits. According to DISCUS, the current outlook for US spirits exports is highly uncertain due to ongoing trade disputes, negotiations, and retaliatory tariffs. Canada, the second largest market for US spirits exports, imposed a 25% tariff on all American-made spirits on March 13, and most Canadian provinces have removed all US alcohol products from retail shelves.
• Producer prices for distilleries stayed flat in September compared to a year ago, after dipping 0.5% in the previous September-versus-September annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Generally, prices for distillers have trended downward or been flat since mid-2023 as sales and demand softened following a steep run up in the aftermath of the pandemic fueled by the reopening of bars and restaurants. Looking ahead, sales for the US distilleries industry are forecast to grow at a 5.83% compounded annual rate from 2025 to 2029, faster than the growth of the overall economy, according to the latest forecast from the Interindustry Economic Research Fund. Employment by breweries, wineries, and distilleries was flat year over year in August, per the BLS.