Distilleries NAICS 312140

Jun 29, 2025 - Forecast Predicts Flattening Decline

• New depletion trend data for wine and spirits signals a bottoming out of downward trends in key categories, according to the latest SipSource quarterly forecast. The 2025 outlook is for negative growth rates to stabilize by yearend, signaling a shift away from the steep and growing decline levels seen between 2022 and 2024. In total, SipSource projects core spirits (including vodka, whiskey, rum, and gin) to bottom out at a negative 4.56% growth rate by the end of 2025 before rebounding slightly to decline at a negative rate of about 4.1% by Q2 2026. The steep downward trend and negative growth rates seen for rum, US whiskey, vodka, and brandy/cognac are expected to largely flatten by the first half of 2026, albeit in negative territory, per the SipSource report.
• After a record-breaking year for exports, ongoing trade disputes between the US and its trading partners threaten to derail growth for the US spirits industry, according to the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States (DISCUS). US spirits exports hit a record $2.4 billion in 2024, driven by a 39% increase in exports to the European Union, the largest market for US spirits, which has zero tariffs on spirits imports. Exports to the rest of the world fell nearly 10%, reflecting a softening of the global market for spirits. According to DISCUS, the current outlook for US spirits exports is highly uncertain due to ongoing trade disputes, negotiations, and retaliatory tariffs. Canada, the second largest market for US spirits exports, began imposing a 25% tariff on all American-made spirits on March 13, and most Canadian provinces have removed all US alcohol products from retail shelves.

• Dry January is over, but distillers aren’t breaking out the champagne as the sober curious movement continues to gain momentum in the US. New findings from marketing firm NCSolutions (NCS) reveal that nearly half of Americans (49%) say they plan to drink less alcohol this year, a 44% increase since 2023. The percentage of people planning to cut back on alcohol consumption has been trending upward over the last three years. In 2023, 34% of Americans planned to drink less, rising to 41% in 2024. In 2025, 30% of Americans say they’re taking part in Dry January, a 36% increase from last year. Per NCS purchase data, Dry January is the least popular month to buy alcohol. In 2024, purchases of spirits tumbled 39% compared to December, while wine purchases fell 36% and beer/cider/hard seltzer purchases decreased 21%.
• Producer prices for distilleries declined nearly 1% in May compared to a year ago, after falling 3.2% in the previous May-versus-May annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Prices for distillers have trended down or been flat since mid-2023 as sales and demand softened following a steep run up in the aftermath of the pandemic fueled by the reopening of bars and restaurants. Despite weak pricing power, after-tax profits for beverage and tobacco products companies soared 145.5% in the fourth quarter versus a year ago but dipped 0.7% from Q3, per the Census Bureau. Employment by breweries, wineries, and distilleries grew 6.7% year over year in April to a new high for the month, per the BLS.