Doll, Toy and Game Manufacturers NAICS 339930

Jul 3, 2025 - Toy Sales Up from January-April

• US toy sales rose 6% from January to April 2025, with units sold up by 3%, compared to the same period a year ago, according to the latest Circana data reported by The Toy Association. Eight of the 11 supercategories that Circana tracks posted dollar growth, including games and puzzles and explorative toys driven by new Pokemon releases and collectible sports trading cards. Other growth areas included building sets, action figures, youth electronics, arts & crafts, vehicles, and infant/toddler/preschool toys. For the January to March 2025 period, adults aged 18+ were the fastest-growing and highest-spending age group. Pricing trends are showing consumers opting for higher-priced toys ($20-$69.99) or lower-cost toys under $15. According to Juli Lennett, Circana VP and toy industry advisor, “The toy industry is showing its resiliency during a turbulent time, but will need to nimbly adapt to a retail landscape of polarized consumers and ongoing inflation concerns.”
• Consumer sentiment, an indicator of discretionary spending, was mixed in June 2025, according to two major indicators. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan grew 15.9% in June 2025 from the previous month, as the Trump administration put some tariffs on hold against major US trade partners, according to CFO Dive. Year over year, the index of consumer sentiment was down 11.3%. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future was up 21.9% from the previous month, but was down 16.1% year over year. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April and the policy volatility seen in the weeks that followed.” Hsu noted that consumers’ views of business conditions, personal finances, buying conditions for big ticket items, labor markets and stock markets all remain below six months ago. However, the Consumer Confidence Index fell by 12.3 points in June 2025, compared to the previous month. The index dropped in June following a gain in May, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index.

• The US doll, toy, and game manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.27% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. This rate is slower than the overall economy's anticipated growth. The durable goods manufacturing sector forecast indicates that the labor force is expected to diminish, barring immigration reform that allows greater numbers. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a report in Retail Dive, the US toy industry may see devastating effects from tariffs, including the closure of many toy businesses. The Trump administration has raised duties on imports from China in 2025; China accounts for about 80% of the toys imported into the US. A recent survey by The Toy Association showed that nearly half of small-and-medium-sized toy businesses said they may shutter due to the current tariff policies, which have frozen the toy production supply chain. Toys typically have a low price point, with over two-thirds of products priced under $25, and margins are typically thin. With the high tariffs, many toy companies cannot absorb the additional costs and are expected to pass the costs to consumers. “The costs of those goods are going to skyrocket,” according to Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of The Toy Association. According to the report, Isaac Larian, the CEO of MGA Entertainment, a large private toy maker which makes Bratz, L.O.L. Surprise, and Little Tikes, said he would have to lay off workers if the tariff situation does not improve. While the company does make goods at its US factories, about 65% of MGA Entertainment’s toys are imported.