Doll, Toy and Game Manufacturers NAICS 339930

Nov 3, 2025 - NRF Forecasts Second-Highest Holiday Spend on Record

• US consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 this holiday season, the second-highest total on record, creating a strong opportunity for doll and toy manufacturers to capture seasonal demand, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Of the $627.93 earmarked for gifts, online shopping remains the most popular destination, followed by department stores and grocery outlets. While gift cards and clothing top wish lists, toys remain a core category for family and youth spending, especially during peak shopping periods like Thanksgiving weekend, when 63% of consumers plan to make most purchases. Manufacturers are responding with value-driven assortments and promotional strategies to navigate economic uncertainty and tariff pressures. Early shopping trends and demand for in-store experiences further highlight the importance of inventory readiness and retail partnerships for toy brands this season.
• Softening consumer confidence and sentiment in October 2025 may dampen discretionary spending, posing challenges for the toy industry ahead of the holiday season. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index edged down to 94.6 from 95.6, as improved current conditions (Present Situation Index up to 129.3) were offset by weaker short-term expectations (Expectations Index down to 71.5). Inflation expectations rose to 5.9%, and over half of consumers anticipated higher interest rates. Holiday spending is projected to fall, with promotions driving purchasing decisions. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment dropped 2.7% month-over-month to 53.6, a 24.0% year-over-year decline. The Current Economic Conditions Index fell to 58.6, and the Expectations Index to 50.3, down 32.1% annually. Year-ahead inflation expectations eased to 4.6%, while long-run expectations rose to 3.9%, with increased uncertainty across both horizons.

• According to a recent Reuters report, toy makers are lowering their costs in the face of rising tariffs by taking steps such as removing batteries from electronics playsets, reducing the number of accessories in toy kitchen sets, and reducing packaging. Tariffs on China imposed by the Trump administration have severely affected the toy industry, as 80% of toys sold in the US come from China. Amid tariffs, Mattel, for example, said in a recent earnings call that it “retooled and reimagined” its board games Candy Land and Operation as part of a larger initiative to overhaul its materials sourcing, manufacturing processes, designs, and packaging to assist with cost cuts. Toy maker MCA Entertainment is moving its supply chains out of China, while manufacturer Basic Fun! is offering retailers the option to remove batteries from electronic toy packages and reduce or remove its toys’ packaging in 2026.
• According to recently released Circana data, US toy sales rose 6% in the first half of 2025 and units sold were up 3%, an improvement over a lackluster performance in 2024. Average selling prices were up 3% in the first half of the year, notable as the average selling price has been flat for three consecutive years. The categories reporting the most growth during the period were puzzles and games (39%), explorative toys (19%), youth electronics (9%), action figures (8%), and building sets (7%). Sales of licensed toys were up 18% in the first half of 2025. Adults continue to drive growth for the market, with sales up 18% for recipients aged 18 and older. According to Juli Lennett, VP and toy industry advisor at Circana, “The toy industry is showing strength during this period as consumers are holding their breath and waiting for higher prices to kick in.”