Doll, Toy and Game Manufacturers NAICS 339930

Mar 5, 2026 - Trade Uncertainty Persists for US Toy Makers After Tariff Ruling

• Tariffs and shifting trade policy continue to shape the outlook for the US toy industry in 2026, though a recent Supreme Court decision may bring partial relief, according to recent reports. The Court ruled that the president lacked authority to impose sweeping tariffs under emergency powers, striking down most of the tariffs that had sharply increased import costs for toy companies. The industry is particularly exposed because more than 85% of toys sold in the United States are imported, many from China. At one point, tariffs on Chinese goods reached 145%, forcing companies to raise prices or absorb higher costs. For example, educational toy maker Learning Resources said its tariff duties surged from $2 million to $14 million in one year, prompting the legal challenge that helped lead to the ruling. While the decision could allow companies to seek refunds of previously collected tariffs, uncertainty remains as policymakers consider alternative trade measures. Following the ruling, the administration introduced a new temporary global tariff of 15%, signaling that trade policy pressures on toy importers are likely to continue.
• In 2026, new federal and state PFAS regulations will significantly increase compliance requirements for US toy manufacturers and retailers. Beginning April 13, 2026, the Environmental Protection Agency will require companies that manufactured or imported PFAS or products containing PFAS between 2011 and 2022 to submit detailed data under the Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA). The rule applies broadly to imported “articles,” including consumer products such as toys, requiring companies to report PFAS uses, production volumes, exposure information, and disposal practices. At the same time, several states are implementing stricter PFAS policies affecting consumer products. Minnesota will require manufacturers to report products sold in the state containing intentionally added PFAS starting in 2026, while other states including Maine, Washington, Colorado, and Vermont are expanding restrictions, reporting requirements, or labeling rules for PFAS in consumer goods, including children’s products. Together, these measures will push toy companies to review supply chains, increase chemical testing, and strengthen supplier documentation across the US market.

• The US doll, toy, and game manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.14% between 2025 and 2029, slower than the overall economy's anticipated growth, according to an updated forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the durable goods manufacturing industries including toy manufacturers. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. The forecast noted that a tighter immigration policy could limit the expansion of the labor supply and job growth for durable goods manufacturing industries. However, labor productivity could still improve due to new technologies such as AI and 3-D printing as well as adjustments forced by the pandemic.
• US consumers expected to spend an average of $890.49 in the 2025 holiday season, the second-highest total on record, creating a strong opportunity for doll and toy manufacturers to capture seasonal demand, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Of the $627.93 earmarked for gifts, online shopping remains the most popular destination, followed by department stores and grocery outlets. While gift cards and clothing top wish lists, toys remain a core category for family and youth spending, especially during peak shopping periods like Thanksgiving weekend, when 63% of consumers plan to make most purchases. Manufacturers are responding with value-driven assortments and promotional strategies to navigate economic uncertainty and tariff pressures. Early shopping trends and demand for in-store experiences further highlight the importance of inventory readiness and retail partnerships for toy brands.