Doll, Toy and Game Manufacturers NAICS 339930

Jan 5, 2026 - Slower Growth Forecast

• The US doll, toy, and game manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.14% between 2025 and 2029, slower than the overall economy's anticipated growth, according to an updated forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the durable goods manufacturing industries including toy manufacturers. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. The forecast noted that a tighter immigration policy could limit the expansion of the labor supply and job growth for durable goods manufacturing industries. However, labor productivity could still improve due to new technologies such as AI and 3-D printing as well as adjustments forced by the pandemic.
• Consumer sentiment in December 2025 pointed to a cautious economic climate for the US doll, toy, and game manufacturing industry. The University of Michigan Index rose 3.7% month over month to 52.9 but remained 30% below December 2024, and 63% of consumers still expect unemployment to increase. Inflation expectations eased to 4.2% for the next year and 3.2% long term, yet overall confidence stayed subdued. The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index fell to 89.1, with current condition assessments weakening and expectations holding at recession associated levels. As households shift spending toward essential, lower cost categories, the toy sector faces softer demand for discretionary items, slower sales of premium toys and collectibles, and heightened price sensitivity. Value oriented products, budget friendly games, and promotional strategies are likely to perform more steadily as consumers prioritize affordability.

• US consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 this holiday season, the second-highest total on record, creating a strong opportunity for doll and toy manufacturers to capture seasonal demand, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Of the $627.93 earmarked for gifts, online shopping remains the most popular destination, followed by department stores and grocery outlets. While gift cards and clothing top wish lists, toys remain a core category for family and youth spending, especially during peak shopping periods like Thanksgiving weekend, when 63% of consumers plan to make most purchases. Manufacturers are responding with value-driven assortments and promotional strategies to navigate economic uncertainty and tariff pressures. Early shopping trends and demand for in-store experiences further highlight the importance of inventory readiness and retail partnerships for toy brands this season.
• According to a recent Reuters report, toy makers are lowering their costs in the face of rising tariffs by taking steps such as removing batteries from electronics playsets, reducing the number of accessories in toy kitchen sets, and reducing packaging. Tariffs on China imposed by the Trump administration have severely affected the toy industry, as 80% of toys sold in the US come from China. Amid tariffs, Mattel, for example, said in a recent earnings call that it “retooled and reimagined” its board games Candy Land and Operation as part of a larger initiative to overhaul its materials sourcing, manufacturing processes, designs, and packaging to assist with cost cuts. Toy maker MCA Entertainment is moving its supply chains out of China, while manufacturer Basic Fun! is offering retailers the option to remove batteries from electronic toy packages and reduce or remove its toys’ packaging in 2026.