Doll, Toy and Game Manufacturers NAICS 339930

May 5, 2025 - Slower Growth Expected

• The US doll, toy, and game manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.27% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. This rate is slower than the overall economy's anticipated growth. The durable goods manufacturing sector forecast indicates that the labor force is expected to diminish, barring immigration reform that allows greater numbers. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if average prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• According to a report in Retail Dive, the US toy industry may see devastating effects from tariffs, including the closure of many toy businesses. The Trump administration has raised duties on imports from China to a total of 145%; China accounts for about 80% of the toys imported into the US. A recent survey by The Toy Association showed that nearly half of small-and-medium-sized toy businesses said they may shutter due to the current tariff policies, which have frozen the toy production supply chain. Toys typically have a low price point, with over two-thirds of products priced under $25, and margins are typically thin. With the high tariffs, many toy companies cannot absorb the additional costs and are expected to pass the costs to consumers. “The costs of those goods are going to skyrocket,” according to Greg Ahearn, president and CEO of The Toy Association. According to the report, Isaac Larian, the CEO of MGA Entertainment, a large private toy maker which makes Bratz, L.O.L. Surprise, and Little Tikes, said he would have to lay off workers if the tariff situation does not improve. While the company does make goods at its US factories, about 65% of MGA Entertainment’s toys are imported.

• Top toy manufacturers Hasbro and Mattel are in the process of moving their manufacturing facilities from China, helping the firms mitigate the effects of new Trump administration trade policies, according to eMarketer. Hasbro anticipates reducing its US toy and game volume from China to below 40% from over 50% in the next two years and has minimal imports from Mexico. Mattel has diversified its supply chain, estimating that China will represent less than 40% of its global toy production in 2025, with Mexico making up less than 10%. Moving toy manufacturing to the US would raise costs significantly because of a shortage of skilled labor and an inadequate plastics industry supply chain, according to a Yahoo! Finance interview with Hasbro CEO Chris Cocks.
• According to a report in CFO Dive, consumer sentiment, an indicator of toy spending, fell in large part due to tariff uncertainty and an expectation of higher prices. The final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”