Dollar and General Merchandise Stores NAICS 455219

Jul 22, 2025 - Back-to-School Sales to Rise in 2025: Survey

• Dollar and off-price stores may be a growing part of back-to-school sales, according to a new Coresight Research survey on US back-to-school spending in Yahoo Finance. The survey estimates that US back-to-school spending will grow 3.3% year over year, reaching $33.3 billion, with consumers anticipating spending more amid inflationary impacts. Focused on value amid broader economic pressures, consumers are seeking budget-friendly shopping options such as dollar stores, off-price stores, mass merchandisers, and secondhand apparel. According to the survey, “Most shoppers expect to exceed last year’s spending, but inflation, tariffs, and supply chain uncertainty continue to weigh on purchase decisions. These concerns are driving behavioral shifts, with many consumers planning to start shopping earlier, explore secondhand options, or adjust where and how they shop in response to higher prices and potential product shortages.” Back-to-school shopping is inching earlier, with 62% of respondents planning to shop before August compared to 53.9% in 2024, potentially motivated by concerns of potential tariffs.
• The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index increased slightly in July 2025, rising to 61.8 in preliminary July data from 60.7 in June, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. The consumer sentiment index hit a recent peak in December of 74, buoyed following the presidential election, but dropped to 52.2 in April 2025 as consumers expressed uncertainty about tariff effects and rising inflation. In July, respondents’ inflation expectations for the coming year were an anticipated price increase of 4.4%, which was tracking higher than in January, when respondents expected prices to grow by 3.9%. However, July’s inflation expectation results were lower than June’s, when respondents expected a 5% price increase for the coming year. The index serves as a predictor of consumer spending as it indicates consumers’ perception of their financial prospects and the broader economy.

• Sales for the US dollar and general merchandise stores industry are projected to grow at a 4.2% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, comparable to the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and the government. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. The forecast said retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. A factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if prices rise due to tariff implementation.
• In July 2025, Dollar Tree completed its sale of its Family Dollar brand to private equity groups Brigade Capital Management and Macellum Capital Management in a $1 billion deal, according to Chain Store Age. Dollar Tree had acquired Family Dollar in 2015 for $9 billion, but the banner consistently underperformed due in part to overexpansion and steep competition from larger discount retailers such as Walmart. In recent years, the company closed nearly 1,000 Family Dollar stores following a store portfolio optimization review of market conditions and individual store performance. Dollar Tree management said the Family Dollar sale allows the company to focus on its core business.