Dollar and General Merchandise Stores NAICS 455219

Nov 19, 2025 - NRF Forecasts Second-Highest Holiday Spend on Record

• US consumers plan to spend an average of $890.49 this holiday season, marking the second-highest total in 23 years and offering dollar and general merchandise retailers a strong opportunity to capture seasonal demand, according to the National Retail Federation and Prosper Insights & Analytics. Per the report, 42% of shoppers plan to visit discount stores, positioning them as a key destination alongside online, department store, and grocery channels. Of the total spend, $627.93 will go toward gifts, with the remainder allocated to food, decorations, and greeting cards. Early shopping remains popular, though 63% of consumers expect to make most purchases during Thanksgiving weekend. Retailers are responding with competitive promotions and value-driven assortments to meet demand amid economic concerns and tariff pressures. Gift cards and clothing top wish lists.
• The Retail Trade Industry is one of 11 industries reporting growth in October's Services ISM Report on Business. Executives in the Retail Trade industry reported increases in business activity, new orders, employment, prices paid for materials and services, and order backlogs, along with decreases in new export orders, imports, and inventories in October. Additional industries reporting growth during the period were Accommodation & Food Services; Wholesale Trade; Real Estate, Rental & Leasing; Health Care & Social Assistance; Utilities; Transportation & Warehousing; Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting; Information; Professional, Scientific & Technical Services; and Educational Services. Six industries reported contraction during the period, including Arts, Entertainment & Recreation; Management of Companies & Support Services; Finance & Insurance; Public Administration; Construction; and Other Services. Overall, economic activity in the services sector expanded in October, with the Services PMI registering 52.4.

• According to a report in Retail Dive, Dollar General reported a strong Q2 performance with net sales rising 5.1% year-over-year to $10.7 billion and same-store sales up 2.8%. Gross profit margin improved to 31.3%, aided by reduced shrink and strategic inventory markups. The retailer raised its full-year guidance, citing broad consumer growth across income levels. Despite tariff-related price pressures, Dollar General’s low direct import exposure and proactive sourcing helped mitigate impact. The company continues to prioritize value, maintaining over 2,000 SKUs priced at or below $1 and staying within 3-4% of mass retailer pricing. Operational enhancements include reduced self-checkouts and SKU rationalization. Dollar General’s growth underscores the resilience and adaptability of dollar store models amid inflationary and tariff challenges.
• US consumer sentiment weakened in October and November 2025, raising concerns for dollar and general merchandise retailers that rely on value-driven discretionary spending. The University of Michigan’s Index of Consumer Sentiment fell 6.2% month-over-month to 50.3, nearly 30% below last year, while the Expectations Index dropped 36.3% annually to 49. Inflation expectations rose to 4.7% for the year ahead, and the Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index slipped to 94.6, with short-term expectations down to 71.5 despite stronger current conditions. With more than half of consumers anticipating higher interest rates, households are expected to cut back on non-essential purchases and seek lower-cost alternatives. For dollar and general merchandise chains, the environment may bring mixed effects: softer demand for discretionary items but potential gains in traffic as consumers trade down from higher-priced retailers, intensifying competition and margin pressures across the sector.