Electrical Equipment Distributors NAICS 423610

May 28, 2025 - Many Proposed Data Centers Unlikely to be Built

• Utilities and grid operators are grappling with a flood of speculative interconnection requests for data centers that may never be built, according to Utility Dive. Grid optimization software firm Camus Energy estimates there are between five and 10 times as many interconnection requests as the number of data centers being built. US data center load growth forecasts often diverge widely. A 2024 projection by the RAND Corporation estimated the AI sector would boost power demand by 347 gigawatts (GW) by 2030. In April 2025, Schneider Electric cited other sources that estimate growth will be less than 100 GW. Speculative requests by data center developers make it challenging for grid operators and utilities to plan for future power needs. To reduce the risks of overbuilding, some utilities are introducing standardized large-load interconnection processes, and others are requiring data center developers to shoulder more of the upfront costs.
• The number of building permits issued for single-family, privately-owned housing units decreased 5.1% in April 2025 compared to March and fell 6.2% year-over-year. Single-family housing starts dropped by 1.6% month-over-month and were down 12% compared to April 2024. Single-family housing completions declined 5.9% in April from the previous month and decreased 12.3% year-over-year. Housing starts in April were pressured by tariff-related economic uncertainty, high mortgage rates, and rising costs for building materials, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

• North American construction and engineering spending in 2025 is expected to grow by 3% after increasing an estimated 7% in 2024, according to FMI’s second-quarter 2025 North American Engineering and Construction Outlook. Nonresidential building construction spending is forecast to be flat in 2025 as growth in amusement and recreation (+7%), transportation (+3%), public safety (+3%), and educational (+3%) is offset by weakness in commercial (-7%), lodging (-5%), and manufacturing (-1%). Amid high mortgage interest rates and a lack of affordability, single-family construction spending is forecast to rise by 3% in 2025. A recent jump in new apartment supply and unfavorable cost conditions will reduce multifamily spending by 12% in 2025. Construction spending in the power sector in 2025 is expected to grow by 6%. According to the 2024 US American Society of Civil Engineers’ infrastructure Report Card, 20% - or about $2 trillion – of the US’s total infrastructure needs through 2023 are related to energy. FMI forecasts that energy construction and engineering spending will rise 5% in 2026, 3% in 2027, 4% in 2028, and 6% in 2029.
• US home builders are dangling more incentives to close deals amid a tepid spring home-buying season that is halfway over, according to The Wall Street Journal. Builders typically notch 40% of their annual sales during the spring, but mortgage rates that are stuck around 7% and a lack of affordability have reduced demand. Builders have increased incentives to bring buyers off the sidelines, including mortgage-rate buydowns, design upgrades, and price cuts. In the first two weeks of April, incentives offered by builders equaled 7.2% of the purchase price, up from 6.1% in January, according to data from John Burns Research & Consulting. Incentives are eating into builder profits during a season that usually sees few discounts, and prices tend to rise.