Electronic Shopping NAICS 459999

Sep 30, 2025 - Ecommerce Holiday Sales to Grow Up to 9%: Deloitte

• According to a report in Digital Commerce 360, Deloitte is projecting that ecommerce holiday sales in the US will grow 7% to 9% in 2025, outpacing overall retail growth, which is expected to rise just 2.9% to 3.4%. The forecasted ecommerce total of $305 to $310.7 billion reflects stable year-over-year growth, driven by rising disposable income and consumers’ preference for online deals. In 2024, US ecommerce holiday spending was $285 billion, an increase of 8%. For the electronic shopping industry, the forecast signals continued strength in digital consumer demand despite economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures. Electronic shopping platforms may need to optimize inventory, pricing strategies, and mobile experiences to meet demand and maintain margins amid tariff-related cost increases and shifting consumer behavior.
• Following a summer surge in imports, US container ports are projected to see declining cargo volumes through year-end due to rising tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, according to the Global Port Tracker report by the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates. July saw a near-record 2.36 million TEU as retailers accelerated shipments ahead of tariff hikes. However, forecasts show steady declines from September through January 2026, with December expected to be the slowest month since March 2023. Sectoral tariffs and reciprocal trade measures are expanding, impacting a broader range of goods and complicating long-term planning for retailers. The trend signals mounting pressure on US retail supply chains. For logistics providers, importers, and retailers, the volatility in trade policy and port activity underscores the need for agile inventory strategies and diversified sourcing. Rising costs and constrained planning windows may lead to higher consumer prices and margin compression across the retail ecosystem.

• An expansive bill signed into law by President Trump in July 2025 includes a provision to eliminate the de minimis exemption, heavily used by fast fashion and other e-commerce retailers, according to a report in Supply Chain Drive. The exemption had allowed imports under $800 to enter the US duty and tax free. While the change was slated to go into effect in 2027, the Wall Street Journal said the White House is ending the exemption as early as August 29, 2025. The new bill establishes a civil penalty for anyone trying to use de minimis entry in a way that violates any other provision of US customs law. Earlier this year, Trump had suspended the de minimis exemption for imports from China. The number of shipments entering the US using the exemption in the last four years increased from 637 million to over 1 billion per year.
• The US electronic shopping industry is projected to grow at an 8.03% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, faster than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. The forecast noted that some shifts in consumer behavior during the pandemic, such as increased online shopping, may prove permanent, while others are returning to pre-pandemic norms. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.