Electronic Shopping NAICS 459999

May 30, 2025 - Faster Growth Expected

• The US electronic shopping industry is projected to grow at an 8.03% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, faster than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. The forecast noted that some shifts in consumer behavior during the pandemic, such as increased online shopping, may prove permanent, while others are returning to pre-pandemic norms. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• An executive order by President Donald Trump ended a trade rule provision known as de minimis that had exempted lower value goods (valued at $800 or less) from duties and tariffs for goods from China, effective May 2025, according to the Wall Street Journal. After a 90-day trade truce was announced with China in mid-May, the US then lowered tariffs for low-value parcels from 120% to 54%, with a flat fee of $100 to remain. Trump had suspended the provision back in February as part of his order announcing a new 10% tariff on imports from China. However, the suspension was delayed following the backup of packages at ports. The rule became a factor as fast fashion e-commerce retailers like Shein, based in China, used the exemption to ship their goods to US buyers. According to government data, the number of shipments entering the US using the exemption in the last four years increased from 637 million per year to over 1 billion per year.

• According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo at major US container ports is expected to see its first year over year decline in more than a year and a half in May 2025, projected to decrease nearly 13%, due to tariff turmoil. Imports are expected to be down at least 20% year over year from June 2025 into the fall, and volume for the year could fall by more than 10%. A series of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration since February have come at a key time in the buying process for retailers, with many retailers pausing or canceling orders as a result. Jonathan Gold, NRF VP for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, said the effects of the tariffs on the supply chain are becoming apparent, noting, “From national security tariffs on Canada, Mexico and China to global and reciprocal tariffs on all countries and a multitude of tariffs on specific sectors, the results will include higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes. In the end, these tariffs will affect consumers in the form of higher prices and less availability on store shelves.” Tracker data showed that US ports handled 2.1 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in March 2025, up 11.1% year over year, and a projected 2.2 million TEU in April 2025, expected to be up 9.1% year over year.
• Consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary spending, fell in April 2025 month over month, dropping by 7.9 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index from the Conference Board. Consumer confidence levels have fallen for five consecutive months, reaching levels not seen since the beginning of the COVID pandemic, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. In addition, the final index of consumer sentiment from the University of Michigan dropped 8% in April 2025 from the previous month, according to CFO Dive. An index measuring consumers’ expectations for the future fell nearly a third since January, the steepest three-month percentage decline since the 1990 recession. According to survey director Joanne Hsu, “Consumers perceived risks to multiple aspects of the economy, in large part due to ongoing uncertainty around trade policy and the potential for a resurgence of inflation looming ahead.”