Electronic Shopping NAICS 459999

Jul 31, 2025 - De Minimis Exemption to End

• An expansive bill signed into law by President Trump in July 2025 includes a provision to eliminate the de minimis exemption, heavily used by fast fashion and other e-commerce retailers, according to a report in Supply Chain Drive. The exemption had allowed imports under $800 to enter the US duty and tax free. While the change was slated to go into effect in 2027, the Wall Street Journal said the White House is ending the exemption as early as August 29, 2025. The new bill establishes a civil penalty for anyone trying to use de minimis entry in a way that violates any other provision of US customs law. Earlier this year, Trump had suspended the de minimis exemption for imports from China. The number of shipments entering the US using the exemption in the last four years increased from 637 million to over 1 billion per year.
• Consumers may adjust their online shopping habits as consumer confidence levels, an indicator of discretionary expenditures, improved in July 2025, month over month, rising by 2 points, according to the Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer confidence levels have stabilized since May but remain lower than last year’s levels, according to The Conference Board, which publishes the monthly index. July’s gain can be attributed to consumers over 35 years old and shared across all income groups, except the lowest income group earning below $15K. In addition, the consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan increased in July 2025, rising to 61.8 in preliminary July data from 60.7 in June, according to a report in the Wall Street Journal. July’s inflation expectation results were lower than June’s, when respondents expected a 5% price increase for the coming year. The index serves as a predictor of consumer spending as it indicates consumers’ perception of their financial prospects and the broader economy.

• The US electronic shopping industry is projected to grow at an 8.03% CAGR from 2025 to 2029, faster than the overall economy's projected growth, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The retail and wholesale sectors are driven by consumer spending, along with expenditure by businesses and government. The forecast noted that some shifts in consumer behavior during the pandemic, such as increased online shopping, may prove permanent, while others are returning to pre-pandemic norms. Retail spending could soften with the growth of spending on consumer services. Another factor that may limit consumer spending is higher tariffs on consumer goods. In 2025 and into the forecast period, real disposable income may be supported by continuing nominal wage growth, lower inflation rates, and higher employment levels. Lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
• According to the Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, import cargo at major US container ports is expected to rebound in July 2025 following a drop in the spring, but is forecast to fall again when a tariff delay by the Trump administration ends in August. Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, said the global supply chain works best in a predictable trade environment and not with erratic policies and geopolitical volatility. He noted, “A flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty.” Tracker data showed that US ports handled 1.95 million 20-foot equivalent units (TEU) in May 2025, down 6.4% year over year, and a projected 2.0 million TEU in June 2025, expected to be down 3.7% year over year.