Farm Raw Product Wholesalers NAICS 4245

May 23, 2026 - USDA's 2026 Crop Acreage Outlook

• The USDA’s closely-watched Prospective Plantings report, released in late March, reveals farmers’ intentions for planted acreage for principal crops in 2026. Among the key takeaways is an expectation for corn acreage to decline from 2025 highs, with farmers intending to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2026, down 3% from last year’s elevated levels, reflecting tighter margins and higher fertilizer costs. Soybean acreage is expected to expand modestly, with soybean plantings reaching 84.7 million acres, up 4% year over year, supported by lower nitrogen requirements, strong domestic crush demand, and crop rotation following large corn acreage in 2025. Wheat plantings decline to a record low 43.8 million acres, while cotton increases modestly. Market uncertainty could still shift final acreage decisions. Volatility in fertilizer markets due to the Iran war, evolving export demand, particularly from China, and spring weather conditions may influence how acres are ultimately allocated.
• The Iran war is increasing uncertainty and costs for US crop producers, influencing farmers' planting decisions for 2026, Farm Progress reports. Rising fertilizer and fuel prices, with urea up sharply and diesel about 35% higher, are raising input costs for farmers, particularly for corn, which requires more nitrogen. As a result, farmers are expected to shift acreage away from corn toward soybeans, which are less input-intensive and currently more economical. Higher costs are putting both crops under financial pressure, with projected losses, but soybeans now offer a relative advantage, reversing last year’s outlook. This could lead to reduced corn acreage and increased soybean plantings, or even some land left unplanted. Additional factors such as shipping costs, inflation, and interest rates are adding to financial strain and planning uncertainty. Overall, crop production is being reshaped by cost pressures and global instability.

• Farm raw products wholesalers have a lot riding on the merger of the Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern railroads: About 3.2 million rail cars of grains, oilseeds, and other agricultural products move by rail on an annual basis, representing more than 10% of all rail shipments, and 26% of grain has at least one rail movement, according to the National Grain and Feed Association. The $85-billion proposed merger would create the nation’s first transcontinental freight railroad, connecting over 50,000 route miles across 43 states and linking some 100 ports, according to Union Pacific. In 2023, more than 80.5 million tons of corn, 26.3 million tons of soybeans, and 25.8 million tons of wheat were shipped by rail, per the USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service. The companies are targeting an early-2027 close for their merger, which faces intense scrutiny from the Surface Transportation Board.
• Producer prices for farm product raw material merchant wholesalers fell 4.3% in April compared to a year ago, after rising 3.1% in the previous April-versus-April annual comparison, according to the latest US Bureau of Labor Statistics data. Wholesale prices for farm raw products have rebounded from historically low levels but are volatile and vulnerable to swings in prices for farm commodities including grains, crops, and livestock. Employment by the industry grew 1.5% year over year in March, according to the BLS. Sales for the US farm raw product wholesalers industry are forecast to grow at a 3.41% compounded annual rate from 2026 to 2030, slower than the growth of the overall economy, according to the latest Interindustry Economic Research Fund forecast.