Finish Carpentry Contractors NAICS 238350

Feb 13, 2026 - Builders Pitch Policies to Ease Oversupply of New Homes

• Residential finish carpentry contractors could see weaker demand amid an oversupply of new homes. Home builders facing the largest glut of unsold homes since 2010 are pitching new policy ideas to the White House to clear excess inventory, according to The Wall Street Journal. Builders' policy ideas include streamlined federal permitting, zoning incentives, expanded FHA access, and a federally backed rent-to-own program to help buyers who cannot afford today’s prices and interest rates. The proposals reflect mounting pressure as high costs, limited affordability, and new restrictions on private investors leave builders with too much inventory and fewer buyers. The industry is also trying to align with Trump administration officials who have criticized both builders and Wall Street landlords. While rent-to-own could help move excess supply, questions remain about enforcement, consumer protections, and whether builders could quickly ramp up construction afterward.
• Weak nonresidential building construction activity may soften demand for finish carpentry services. Construction spending for nonresidential buildings is expected to remain sluggish in 2026 and 2027, according to the latest American Institute of Architects’ (AIA) Consensus Construction Forecast. Spending on nonresidential building construction is expected to rise 1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Through 2027, commercial facility growth will be led by data centers, with spending increasing 26.3% in 2026 and 16.5% in 2027. However, offices are expected to see a sharp decline in spending over the forecast period, while warehouse and retail will see weak growth this year and modest gains in 2027. Manufacturing construction spending will fall 3.9% in 2026 and drop 2.8% next year. Spending on institutional projects will grow 2.7% this year, and 2.8% in 2027, led by steady growth in the health sector, but educational, and amusement and recreation project spending will be flat.

• Custom home building starts increased in the third quarter of 2025, according to National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) analysis of US Census Bureau data. In the third quarter, custom home building starts totaled 51,000, up 6% from Q3 2024. Over the last four quarters, there were 187,000 custom home starts, which is 5% higher than the previous four-quarter total of 178,000. The custom home market is less sensitive to interest rates than other types of home building, but is more affected by shifts in household wealth and stock market performance. Custom homes have gained market share as the spec home building market has slumped and stocks have risen.
• Home remodeling spending growth is expected to moderate in 2026, according to the Leading Indicator of Remodeling Activity (LIRA) report released in January by the Joint Center for Housing Studies at Harvard. Homeowner spending on improvements and repairs is expected to increase 2.9% to $527 billion in the first quarter of 2026, compared to Q1 2025. In the second quarter of 2026, remodeling spending will trend downward to $518 billion but still be up 2.1% from Q2 2025. Spending will then moderate further to $517 billion in Q3 2026, up 2% from Q3 2025. In the fourth quarter of 2026, year-over-year spending is forecast to rise 1.6% to $522 billion. While solid remodeling permitting activity and gradually improving single-family home sales will support remodeling activity, potential headwinds include continued weakness of housing starts and elevated interest rates.