Finish Carpentry Contractors NAICS 238350

Dec 10, 2025 - Lumber Prices Fall on Oversupply, Weak Demand

• Finish carpenters may experience margin relief as log and lumber prices drop. On December 3, lumber futures were trading around $530 per thousand board feet, nearly matching September pricing, which was the lowest level this year, according to Trading Economics. Many lumber buyers frontloaded supplies ahead of tariffs in anticipation of rising housing demand that never materialized. Lumber dealers are offloading bloated inventories into already oversupplied markets, sending prices lower. High mortgage rates and a waning building season have put additional downward pressure on pricing, prompting some sawmills to announce production cutbacks and mill closures.
• Nonresidential building construction starts increased 17.9% in October compared to the previous month, according to Dodge Construction Network. Commercial starts rose 19.5%, led by data centers (+45.5%) and retail stores (+15.1%). Office construction starts also improved, but starts were lower for hotels (-19.3%), warehouses (-1.7%), and parking garages (-46.1%). Institutional starts grew 3.7% due to project categories other than education and healthcare, which saw starts fall 20.8% and 2.7%, respectively. Manufacturing starts jumped 107.2% in October compared to September, but the sector remains volatile from month to month. Nonresidential building starts were up 5.6% for the first 10 months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024. On a year-to-date basis, commercial and industrial starts increased 13.6%, while institutional starts fell 2.2%.

• Home builder confidence in the single-family market increased slightly in November, but remained in contraction territory amid sustained industry headwinds, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Home builder sentiment, as measured by the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI), rose one point to 38 in November 2025. Any HMI reading over 50 indicates that more builders see conditions as good than poor. Builders reported that the US government shutdown added to existing challenges, including tariff-related economic uncertainty and rising construction costs. The HMI survey also showed that 41% of builders reduced home prices in November, marking a record post-pandemic high. The average price reduction of 6% was unchanged from the previous month.
• On October 14, 2025, the US added 10% tariffs on wood floors, lumber, and wood, according to The New York Times. Industry watchers say the new tariffs will significantly raise construction and renovation costs for U.S. homebuilders. With duties reaching up to 50% on some items by January, builders who rely on foreign materials warn of project delays and increased uncertainty. The National Association of Home Builders estimates that 7% of materials used in new residential construction are imported. Industry leaders fear the added costs will be passed on to consumers, making homeownership and renovations more expensive while slowing new home construction, deepening the housing shortage, and offsetting any relief from falling interest rates.