Firearms Manufacturers NAICS 332994

Sep 8, 2025 - Producer Prices Flat, Employment Down

• Producer prices for firearms and ordnance manufacturers stayed flat in July 2025 year over year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Overall, producer prices have grown 6.3% from July 2019 to July 2025. Employment for the small arms, ammunition, and other ordnance manufacturing industry fell 3.1% in June 2025 year over year, per the BLS. Employment over the past three years decreased 2%, lower than private employment growth of 3.9% during the period. Additionally, consumer spending levels slowed significantly in the first half of 2025, from the robust pace seen in late 2024, according to Fitch Ratings. Consumer spending growth fell to 0.5% in Q1 2025 and 1.4% in Q2 2025, down from 3.7% in Q3 2024 and 4% in Q4 2024, per Fitch.
• The volume of firearm background checks, an indicator of gun sales, fell by 8.1% July 2025 year over year, according to SGB Media. The National Shooting Sports Foundation (NSSF)-adjusted National Instant Background Check System (NICS) verifications for the sale of a firearm at retail totaled over 978,700 million in July 2025, compared to 1,064,790 in July 2024. July 2025 marked the sixth consecutive month of background check declines, following a slight increase in January 2025. The top five states for adjusted NICS checks were Texas, Florida, California, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. According to the report, the NSSF-adjusted NICS data does not directly reflect arms sales but offers a view of current market conditions.

• Firearms manufacturing, included in the fabricated metal products manufacturing category, is one of the 10 manufacturing industries reporting contraction in August’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. Fabricated metal products manufacturers reported decreased new orders, lower employment, slower supplier deliveries, lower order backlogs, and higher prices for raw materials, as well as growth in production. Other manufacturing industries reporting contraction during the period were Paper Products; Wood Products; Plastics & Rubber Products; Transportation Equipment; Furniture & Related Products; Machinery; Electrical Equipment, Appliances & Components; Computer & Electronic Products; Chemical Products; and Fabricated Metal Products. The seven industries reporting growth were Textile Mills; Apparel, Leather & Allied Products; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Petroleum & Coal Products; Miscellaneous Manufacturing; and Primary Metals. Overall, economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted for the sixth consecutive month in August, with the Manufacturing PMI registering 48.7%.
• The US firearms manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 5.21% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is faster than the overall economy's anticipated growth. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if average prices rise due to tariff implementation. The durable goods manufacturing sector forecast indicates that the labor force is expected to diminish, barring immigration reform that allows greater numbers. However, new technologies could support labor productivity for the industry.