Firearms Manufacturers NAICS 332994

Mar 12, 2025 - Costs, Suppliers Impacted by Tariffs

• According to The Outdoor Wire, firearms manufacturers may have to navigate higher costs and rework supply chains due to new 25% tariffs on imported steel and aluminum imposed by the Trump administration; firearms makers rely heavily on these materials during production. Smaller firearms manufacturers will likely have to diversify suppliers to mitigate the tariff’s impact. While generally pricier, domestic suppliers may turn out to be a good option due to more predictable lead times and quality consistency, per the report. It may make sense to lock in favorable longer-term agreements or higher volume orders to better predict costs in the face of ongoing tariff fluctuations. Other options to manage the circumstances include investing in operational improvements, adjusting pricing strategically, and diversifying product lines and markets.
• Firearms manufacturing, included in the fabricated metal products manufacturing category, is one of the 10 manufacturing industries reporting growth in February’s Manufacturing ISM Report on Business. Fabricated metal products manufacturers reported increases in new orders, production, and employment, while reporting faster supplier deliveries, lower inventories, increased order backlogs, and higher prices for raw materials. Other manufacturing industries reporting growth during the period included Petroleum & Coal Products; Primary Metals; Wood Products; Food, Beverage & Tobacco Products; Electrical Equipment, and Appliances & Components. The five manufacturing industries reporting contraction during the period were Furniture & Related Products; Textile Mills; Nonmetallic Mineral Products; Computer & Electronic Products; and Machinery. Overall, economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded for the second month in a row in February, with the Manufacturing PMI registering 50.3%.

• A recent forecast from Southwick Associates calls for the firearms market to continue to normalize in 2025, with anticipated NICS checks falling 5%, according to Shooting Industry Magazine. The 2025 decrease will be slightly higher than in 2024, which benefited from a boost in firearm sales related to the election. The forecast said the election results and unified government will likely pause federal firearm restrictions for the next few years. However, state-level firearm restrictions may still be under consideration and passed. Firearms consumers may anticipate a better economy, following the completion of the election, recent interest rate cuts, and a lower inflation rate. This higher confidence level may bring consumers off the sidelines to purchase new firearms products, per the report. Problems might arise for the industry related to increased tariffs under the new Trump administration. Per the report, “Potential tariff increases will affect costs for raw materials and imported products, creating a new potential headwind for the industry to put greater pressure on manufacturers’ margins and consumer demand.” The forecast projects that accessories sales may fare better than firearm sales in 2025. Southwick Associates also found the industry should welcome and embrace recent non-traditional customers, including women, Black, and Hispanic customers who’ve been part of the 80% percent of firearms purchasers buying guns for protection in the last few years.
• The US firearms manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3.2% between 2024 and 2028, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. The expected growth rate is slower than the overall economy's anticipated growth. Factors that continue to limit consumer spending are higher price levels and interest rates, though both are expected to improve in 2024. Production and supply chain systems have generally improved following the pandemic, with many imbalances diminishing. The report noted that consumer confidence levels are expected to improve in the forecast window, which bodes well for durable manufacturing industries. Additionally, consumer sentiment has seen a degree of improvement following sustained lower levels.