Footwear Manufacturers NAICS 316210

May 12, 2025 - Slower Growth Forecast

• The US footwear manufacturers industry is projected to grow at a CAGR of 3% between 2025 and 2029, according to a forecast from Inforum and the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, Inc. This rate is slower than the overall economy's anticipated growth. Consumer sentiment is expected to improve in the forecast period, which bodes well for the sector. A factor that may curb consumer spending is substantially higher tariffs on consumer goods, which may be painful for households. On a positive note, lower inflation supports a moderate increase of real disposable income by about 2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026. Real income could suffer if average prices rise due to tariff implementation. The nondurable goods manufacturing sector forecast indicates that the labor force is expected to diminish, barring immigration reform that allows greater numbers. However, new technologies could support labor productivity for the industry.
• The American Apparel and Footwear Association (AAFA) welcomed news in May 2025 that the US and China proclaimed a 90-day pause on tariffs, with US tariffs reduced to 30% and China tariffs reduced to 10% beginning on May 14. Earlier in the year, the US had raised tariffs on Chinese goods to up to 145%. According to AAFA President and CEO Steve Lamar, the temporary agreement may help “unstick the effective trade embargo” since the higher tariffs went into place, but consumers still face an expensive back-to-school and holiday season. He noted, “If freight rates spike due to the tariff-induced shipping disruptions — which will take months to unwind — we could see costs and prices creep up even further. What’s needed now is a long-term deal — not just with China but with all our trading partners — so we can predictably make long term trade, investment, and sourcing decisions.” The Trump administration has pushed tariffs as a way to support more US manufacturing.

• According to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America (FDRA) trade group, footwear sales dropped 26.2% for the week ending February 22, 2025, compared to the same week a year ago. Sales fell again in March, falling 10% for the week ending March 8, year over year. FDRA CEO Matt Priest said the decline is caused by caution due to tariff uncertainties. Per Priest, “This isn’t just a routine market shift—it’s a clear sign that rising inflation and the looming threat of new tariffs directly impact consumer behavior.” The Trump Administration has begun implementing a range of tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, as well as on products such as steel and aluminum. Retail Dive reports that Crocs plans to take a $11 million hit to gross profits from tariffs this year; the company expects about 15% of its inventory to be Chinese imports to the US.
• Footwear manufacturers are adjusting to new legislation now in effect in California and New York restricting the use of PFAS in apparel, footwear, bedding, and other textiles, according to Footwear Insight magazine. Often called “forever chemicals” due to their difficulty breaking down, PFAS are a group of chemicals widely used in consumer products. The chemicals are often used for waterproofing footwear and fabric treatments and finishes. The California law bars the manufacturing, sale, and distribution of new fabric products that contain PFAS, according to YahooNews. Manufacturers must instead use the least toxic alternative available or create alternative designs to achieve the desired properties. Industry executives say removing PFAS from products can be a long process due to the chemical’s pervasiveness as well as complex supply chains. Companies also need to review existing inventory and address any contaminated inventory.